By Aung Hla Tun
YANGON (Reuters) - A breakthrough could be near on aframework to open up the aid to the millions needing help afterCyclone Nargis slammed into Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta earlythis month, Britain's Asia minister said on Sunday.
Aid has been trickling in for the up to 2.5 million peopleaffected by the cyclone, with Myanmar's military rulers,suspicious of the outside world, reluctant to admit majorforeign operations and the workers to run them.
But Britain's Asia minister, Mark Malloch-Brown, said aframework was being set up for a U.N. and Asian-led operationthat could solve the impasse.
"I think we're potentially at a turning point, but like allturning points in (Myanmar), the corner will have a few S bendsin it," he told Reuters in an interview.
Thousands of children could die within weeks if food doesnot get to them soon, non-government aid organisation Save theChildren said on Sunday.
The World Food Programme (WFP), leading the outsideemergency food effort, said it had managed to get rice andbeans to 212,000 of the 750,000 people it thinks are most inneed after the May 2 storm, which left at least 134,00 dead ormissing.
Malloch-Brown said the United Nations estimates that so farhelp has reached less than 25 percent of the people in need.
But now, he said: "I'm confident we've got movement here inthe sense we've diplomatically found an answer to thestand-off."
HISTORIC DISASTER
In the last 50 years, only two Asian cyclones have exceededNargis in terms of human cost -- a 1970 storm that killed500,000 people in neighbouring Bangladesh, and another thatkilled 143,000 in 1991, also in Bangladesh.
If the reclusive military government still refuses to openits doors to a large-scale tsunami-style aid operation,disaster experts say Nargis's body count could still climbdramatically.
Other countries have urged the former Burma to give aidworkers and mercy flights more access.
Malloch-Brown came to Yangon after first visiting someAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations members, and in Myanmarhas seen a succession of senior officials.
He described a process that has begun with Asian nationsMyanmar considers friendly sending aid teams into the country,and the presence of an ASEAN assessment team on the ground.
That team is due to report to a meeting of foreignministers from ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, inSingapore on Monday.
These would be steps along the way to an Asian-U.N. ledoperation into which other countries would channel theirefforts.
"We can be relieved today two weeks after the cyclone thatthere's finally emerging a model of cooperation that couldwork," Malloch-Brown said.
U.N. chief humanitarian officer John Holmes was due inYangon later on Sunday. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon haspreviously proposed a "high-level pledging conference" to dealwith the crisis as well as having a joint coordinator from theU.N. and ASEAN to oversee aid delivery.
However, junta supremo Than Shwe has refused to talk to Banon the phone since the cyclone.
CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY?
France has accused the junta of being on the verge of acrime against humanity, Prime Minister Gordon Brown hascondemned the generals' sluggish response as "inhuman", andthere has been talk of bringing in aid without Myanmar'spermission.
"We've never ruled out anything," Malloch-Brown said. "Wemust do what it takes to help the victims, but this middleoption has emerged which offers greater possibility ofimmediate assistance.
"There's no point making threats if you're trying to workwith the government."
The French and U.S. navies have ships equipped with aid andhelicopters hovering off Myanmar's waters in the Bay of Bengal,but Paris and Washington say they will not start any aidflights from the vessels until they get a green light from thegenerals.
Despite his optimism about a possible breakthrough,Malloch-Brown said that because of Myanmar's suspicions of theoutside, operations were still unlikely to involve foreign aidworker numbers comparable to other recent disasters in Asia.
The reluctance of the Myanmar military, which has ruled forthe last 46 years, to allow a foreign aid worker influx appearsto stem from fear of losing its vice-like grip on power.
The generals say they have the situation under control. Inaddition to their own efforts and some aid teams from friendlycountries, they have allowed flights to bring help to Yangonairport, with the junta controlling distribution from there.
But just a few days ago men, women and children stood formiles alongside the road near the delta town of Kunyangon,begging in the mud and rain for scraps of food or clothing fromthe occasional passing aid vehicle.
Thousands of other refugees are crammed into monasteriesand schools, fed and watered by local volunteers and privatedonors who have sent in clothes, biscuits, dried noodles andrice.
(With additional reporting by Nopporn Wong-Anan and EdCropley in BANGKOK; Writing by Jerry Norton; Editing by DavidFox)
