Strauss-Kahn comeback seen difficult, French divided

PARIS (Reuters) - France's Socialist Party said on Monday its erstwhile star Dominique Strauss-Kahn is unlikely to enter the 2012 presidential race, despite the weakening of the sex assault case against him in New York.

Party spokesman Benoit Hamon said the idea that Srauss-Kahn could now run for the presidency was "the weakest" of all possible scenarios for the former IMF chief's political future.

However, if he opted to make a late entry in the Socialists' October primary, after the July 13 deadline for candidates to register, the party leadership would not block it, Hamon said.

"Let's leave Dominique Strauss-Kahn some breathing space and let him speak once he is ready," he told a news conference.

In another twist that could hurt his comeback prospects, a lawyer for French writer Tristane Banon said she planned to file a complaint against Strauss-Kahn on Tuesday for allegedly trying to rape her in early 2003 when she was 22.

Strauss-Kahn had been viewed as the left's best chance of defeating conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy in April 2012, but his shock arrest in mid-May on attempted rape charges has meant the Socialists have had to press on without him.

The two main contenders to emerge are former party leader Francois Hollande and former Labour Minister Martine Aubry, who headed the party until she declared her candidacy last week.

The primary campaign has been thrown into turmoil and public opinion divided by news late last week that the case against Strauss-Kahn was unravelling due to doubts about his accuser's credibility -- raising the prospect of a political resurrection.

The left's lead over Sarkozy in opinion polls has narrowed sharply since Strauss-Kahn's exit as a possible contender.

In a BVA poll published on Monday, 63 percent of respondents said they did not think Strauss-Kahn would run for election.

Socialists called on Monday for an inquiry into the rush to judgement against Strauss-Kahn, arrested on charges he tried to rape a hotel maid, while Interior Minister Claude Gueant dismissed mutterings of a political plot as "scandalous."

Strauss-Kahn's abrupt reversals of fortune have angered many supporters, who saw the New York police's decision to parade him after his arrest, dishevelled and in handcuffs, as "trial by media" and a gross violations of his rights.

Analysts say the experienced centre-leftist could bolster the Socialists' election campaign by taking a backstage advisory role, but the picture painted of him as a sexual predator could ultimately prove damaging for the party.

A judge released Strauss-Kahn from house arrest on Friday after prosecutors uncovered a series of lies by his accuser that they said undermined her credibility. The sex assault charges remain in place.

While five contenders are jostling in France for the Socialist nomination, Strauss-Kahn is confined to the United States ahead of his next court hearing on July 18 hearing.

PUBLIC SPLIT

Opinion polls show voters are deeply divided over whether the former finance minister could return to politics after the muck-raking that followed one of the most dramatic political downfalls in history.

Strauss-Kahn's allies are rallying round him.

Celebrity philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy said Strauss-Kahn was the sole victim in the affair and should return to politics.

"There is only one victim, in terms of someone whose life has been shattered. It's DSK," Levy told Europe 1 radio, using a popular nickname for Srauss-Kahn. "He's a man whose life has been trampled on, broken, discredited, degraded."

Hollande, the new centre-left frontrunner for 2012, told RTL radio there should be an inquiry into possible foul play.

"There could have been a trap. In life, there can always be somebody who tries to manipulate you, to trap you," he said.

Socialist deputy Pierre Moscovici, a close confidant of Strauss-Kahn, also called for an inquiry to establish whether there had been judicial errors.

An Ipsos survey conducted on July 1 and 2 found 51 percent of those questioned think Strauss-Kahn's political career is over and only 42 percent think he can return. Among Socialist Party supporters, 57 percent said he could make a comeback.

A Harris Interactive poll also carried out on July 1 and 2 found 42 percent of French thought Strauss-Kahn would make a good president. He scored 77 percent on "competency" versus 57 percent for both Hollande and rival Martine Aubry.

Counting against Strauss-Kahn is the fact the New York case shone a spotlight into a private life that shocked many.

Last week's news that the hotel chambermaid had lied to a grand jury and made other false statements rekindled mutterings in France of a plot to bring down Strauss-Kahn.

Lawmaker Francois Loncle has hinted at possible links between French interests and hotel chain Accor, which owns the Sofitel in question. Accor has denied any role in the Strauss-Kahn affair, saying any suggestion to the contrary "could be considered defamatory."

Socialist Michele Sabban has talked darkly of an attempted political assassination. But the government dismissed such talk.

"What they say is absolutely scandalous," said Gueant, one of Sarkozy's closest aides. "These accusations are odious."

(Additional reporting by Vicky Buffery and Marc Angrand; Writing by Catherine Bremer; editing by Paul Taylor)

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