By William Maclean
(Reuters) - Armed might alone will not save Muammar Gaddafi, but even with an army shrunk by desertions the Libyan leader has the firepower to foment chaos or possibly civil war.
Analysts monitoring Libya's crisis say the most likely outcome is that rebels eventually take the capital and either kill or capture him and a hardcore group of loyalists.
Many who know Gaddafi say he will fight to the finish, even though his 41-year-old rule looks increasingly uncertain after the loss of several cities and defections by soldiers, local and national officials and diplomats.
In an ominous sign for Gaddafi, poor neighbourhoods of Tripoli openly defied him at a funeral on Saturday, and security forces abandoned the working-class Tajoura district after five days of demonstrations, residents said.
Libya's former justice minister, Mustafa Mohamed Abud Ajleil, has led the formation of an interim government based in the eastern city of Benghazi, Libya's Quryna newspaper reported.
Defeat may not be swift, and in the short term it is not the only possibility. Here are other scenarios.
GADDAFI FIGHTS BACK, A STANDOFF WITH THE REBELS ENSUES
With several thousand troops backed by heavy armour deployed around the capital, and pro-Gaddafi gunmen violently suppressing dissent inside it, Gaddafi may have enough firepower for now to stop any opposition gains in the city, said Jon Marks, chairman of Britain's Cross Border Information consultancy.
Marks said dissidents in the capital were waiting "for reinforcements." But help might not arrive if Gaddafi's son Khamees, who leads the army's reportedly powerful 32nd Brigade, crushes advances on the approach roads to the city, he said.
In addition hundreds and possibly thousands of armed internal security agents in Tripoli would be on alert for any attempt by the opposition to quietly infiltrate armed men into the capital from outlying areas, security experts say.
Military experts estimate Gaddafi can count on 10,000 to 12,000 troops, not counting loyalists in the security services and mercenaries. He also controls Tripoli airport and the port.
A standoff might give Gaddafi time to deploy economic or paramilitary means to shore up links with any tribes that have not yet declared themselves for the rebels.
GADDAFI FLEES TRIPOLI, STARTS DESERT INSURGENCY
London-based Algerian lawyer Saad Djebbar, who knows a large number of Gaddafi's top officials, says that for Gaddafi staying in power had become impossible. "It's about staying alive."
"He will create conditions for guerrilla warfare, that's why he invited Libyans to take weapons," he said.
Gaddafi may flee to the southern desert area of Sebha where his tribe is from and try to destabilise country from there. He might also try to flee to his hometown of Sirte, but this may be too risky -- it is near the east, which is in rebel hands.
"Someone like him must have already made some hideouts in the desert," said Djebbar.
Geoff Porter, an independent U.S. analyst, said he could envisage the crisis ending up as a "manhunt," adding: "He could well go to ground with loyal henchmen. So he may fall from power, but his whereabouts may not be known for weeks."
GADDAFI FLEES TRIPOLI, TRIBES AGREE TRUCE TO PREVENT CHAOS
Djebbar said Gaddafi's "time is over. But how much damage he will cause before leaving is the question."
He said the amount of disruption that would follow a defeat of Gaddafi depended on the loyalty of his tribesmen and relatives. At some stage, Gaddafi's Gaddadfa tribe would decide to negotiate with other tribes and agree to cease hostilities.
Libya expert Mansour El-Kikhia says rifts in the Gaddadfa had already opened up between loyalists and dissidents. The Gaddadfa want to do everything to avoid being persecuted by vengeful authorities in a future post-Gaddafi Libya.
Ajleil said Libya was not in a phase of score-settling and the Gaddadfa were forgiven, Quryna said.
GADDAFI FOMENTS A FULLY-FLEDGED CIVIL WAR
This is seen at present as unlikely. But Marks said he could envision a standoff between "a weird sort of city state ruled by this rump of Gaddafi forces, and the rest of the country ruled by an opposition that lacks the clout to take the capital quickly. If that endures, you may end up with a civil war.
Djebbar said that the longer Gaddafi continued crushing protests, the more difficult it would be for his tribe to negotiate a peaceful settlement.
GADDAFI IS TOPPLED, FLEES ABROAD
Djebbar said he could envision Gaddafi's closest relatives pushing him to negotiate with allied tribal leaders and senior officers to obtain safe passage to leave the country.
"We have noticed how many of his henchmen who have defected sought refuge with their tribes or fiefdom, which highlights the importance of tribes in determining Gaddafi's future.
"So he, or his relatives, can tell allied tribes 'I'll cease the hostility on condition I leave for some country without facing trial."
Few countries are expected to be willing to take Gaddafi. And once abroad he might be vulnerable to any future attempt to extradite him for prosecution on war crimes charges at the International Criminal Court at The Hague.
