Factbox - Australian cyclone risks to commodities trade

SYDNEY (Reuters) - A massive cyclone due to slam into Australia's northeast coast on Wednesday could prove costly for major producers of commodities such as sugar, coal, nickel, copper and gold.

Cyclone Yasi, now closing in on the central coast of Queensland state, is forecast to generate winds of up to around 300 kph (180 mph) by the time it comes ashore late on Wednesday.

Here are the main risks to commodity markets.

SUGAR

The cyclone threatens to flatten sugar cane in an area accounting for roughly a third of Queensland state's production, which in turn makes up more than 90 percent of national sugar production.

Crop damage could further pressure world raw-sugar prices, already at three-decade highs.

Australia ranks among the top-three raw-sugar exporters alongside Brazil and Thailand, shipping more than 3.0 million tonnes in a normal year, or about 10 percent of the world export market.

In 2006, a weaker cyclone, named Larry, slashed national raw sugar output by almost 8 percent to 4.7 million tonnes.

The abnormally wet start to the Australian summer this year caused the country's worst harvest in 20 years.

Raw sugar exports for 2010/11 are forecast to fall to around 2.4 million tonnes from the previous 3.2 million tonnes, after recent heavy rains and floods cut sugar content, says leading sugar exporter Queensland Sugar Ltd.

Queensland-based Cane growers Association had hoped for a modest recovery in sugarcane production to around 29 million tonnes in 2011/12 from 27.3 million tonnes in 2010/11.

A normal harvest is around 33 million tonnes.

Harvesting usually starts mid-year and can finish as late as December. The current crop threatened by Yasi is in its early growing phase.

Global sugar supply will just cover demand this year and prices will fall by end-2011, a Reuters poll in January showed, although that fine balance could easily be upset by dire weather or logjams at ports in Brazil, the world's top sugar producer.

Also in the path of the cyclone are the two biggest Australian sugar ports: Mackay, which can handle 3 million tonnes a year, and Townsville (2 million tonnes).

COTTON & GRAINS

Cotton, grains and livestock growers are likely to be spared the full brunt of the cyclone given the most powerful winds and rain are expected to pass north of these operations, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysis.

"The further to the north the cyclone tracks, the less damage that will be incurred in the state's agricultural sector," Commonwealth Bank of Australia sector analyst Luke Mathews said.

However, the National Farmers Federation notes that 12.3 million head of cattle in Queensland represents almost half the national herd.

If the cyclone heads inland into what is known as the "gulf country" and u-turns back towards Townsville, retracing the path of 2006's Cyclone Larry, it's likely to affect around 20 percent of the Queensland herd, according to the federation.

OTHER AGRICULTURE

There are only nine poultry farms in the region and a single processing plant. Processing accounts for about 1 percent of the national flock.

Bananas are in peak season now, which like in the aftermath of Cyclone Larry, caused a national shortage. Other fruit grown in the region include mangoes, paw paw, lychees, macadamia nuts and strawberries.

The impact of vegetable production is unlikely to be significant in terms of crop losses since summer is not the growing season due to the extreme heat.

COAL

Rio Tinto's Hail Creek mine and Xstrata Coal's Collinsville mine have been closed and Xstrata was considering shutting its Newlands mine as well.

Australia, the world's largest coal exporter, accounts for about two-thirds of global coking coal trade, with around 90 percent of that coming from Queensland state. Coking or metallurgical coal is used for steelmaking.

Queensland's coal industry is already facing lost production equivalent to about 5 percent of exports this year because of massive flooding in January, according to a Reuters poll of analysts last week.

Several of Queensland's coal ports have halted operations ahead of Cyclone Yasi. The two largest, Dalrymple and Gladstone, had been shipping well below normal volumes because flood-stricken miners are still struggling to return to normal.

Miners are bailing out their pits and rail line repairs are underway. Cyclone damage to rail infrastructure and loading terminals could also hamper the industry's recovery.

Global coal prices are likely to spike if Cyclone Yasi hit a major number of Queensland mines. Floods have already boosted coal prices, with energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie saying coking-coal prices could climb as high as $500 per tonne and thermal coal could exceed their record of $197 per tonne.

METALS

Xstrata Plc's copper refinery in Townsville produces 300,000 tonnes of London Metal Exchange-grade copper cathode a year from copper anode produced at the company's Mount Isa smelter located 900 km (560 miles) inland.

This compares with annual Production of 185,000 tonnes from rival BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam mine and global production of around 19 million tonnes.

The Port of Townsville exports Xstrata copper as well as other mineral concentrates from Mount Isa and across northwest Queensland.

Nickel production from Australia's 30,000 tonnes-per-year Yabulu refinery has been suspended as a precaution, a spokesman for the refinery's owner, QNI Ltd, said.

Latest port data shows 419,533 tonnes of refined mineral products were exported from the Port of Townsville, along with 1.035 million tonnes of sugar, in the nine months to April 2010.

Conquest Mining's Pajingo mine, 50km south of the historic gold mining town of Charters Towers and yielding around 2,200 ounces of gold a month is located well within in the forecast path of Yasi.

The company said is not expecting a major interruption to mining activities at Pajingo but as a safety precaution work has been suspended.

Meteorologists expect the storm to still pack minimal cyclone strength as far inland as the Mt Isa mining region, some 1,000 kms in from the coast.

Xstrata, which mines copper, lead, zinc and silver in Mt Isa, said at this stage was monitoring Yasi's progression.

(Reporting by James Regan, Bruce Hextall and Rebekah Kebede)

(Editing by Ed Lane)