By Royston Chan
DALIAN, China (Reuters) - North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il faces pressure to embrace economic reforms and return to nuclear disarmament talks during his visit to China, but bold moves are unlikely from the reclusive man in khaki.
Neither Beijing nor Pyongyang have confirmed that Kim is on the rare trip abroad, but there was little doubt that the short, frizzy-haired Kim entered China by train on Monday and spent the night in Dalian, a port city in northeast China promoted as a showcase of market reforms.
Even some state-run Chinese media, including the China Daily, reported on the visit, albeit citing foreign news reports.
Kim's motorcade of limousines, mini-buses and security cars left the Furama Hotel in Dalian on Tuesday morning, but foreign reporters trying to film his departure were detained by police. His next destination was unclear.
The choice of Dalian, with its foreign companies and industrial parks, showed Beijing wants to nudge Kim to grapple with his feeble economy, said Zhang Liangui, an expert on North Korea at the Central Party School in Beijing.
Those economic concerns would jostle with China's worries about North Korea's nuclear weapons programme when -- as seems almost certain -- Kim later meets Chinese President Hu Jintao and other leaders, said Zhang.
"There will be discussion of North Korea demands for aid, for food and oil, as well as returning to the nuclear talks," said Zhang. "But I think the North Korean leader will be most concerned about economic relations, because the domestic economy there is in trouble," he added.
Wearing his trademark sunglasses and khaki outfit, Kim stepped from a motorcade on Monday evening, and walked gingerly into the hotel in Dalian, which had covered its facade in a billowing white sheet to deter prying eyes.
China has become a crucial economic and political backer of its much smaller neighbour. In 2009, bilateral trade between China and North Korea, with an estimated GDP of $17 billion, was worth $2.7 billion. (For more on ties see)
Kim's trip, his first abroad since a suspected stroke in 2008, comes while his government faces pressure on two security fronts -- stalled nuclear disarmament talks and the sinking of a South Korean warship, apparently hit by a North Korean torpedo.
"The pressure (on North Korea) is heavy and it seems that Kim would want to choose this time to visit to play the China card, to show that he has China's support," said Zhang.
NO BOLD MOVES
In his last trip to China in 2006, Kim toured industrial centres for a first-hand look under the hood of the country's quickly growing economy.
But Kim is unlikely to make any bold economic steps, following a mismanaged currency redenomination that crippled much of his country's nascent private business and sent shivers of unrest through the brittle North Korean economy, said Zhang.
"China hopes that Kim will learn from it, but North Korea doesn't think that way," he said. "It would be childish to expect that Kim Jong-il will change his mind because he has visited a few projects."
Kim's visit could kindle hopes of restarting dormant international nuclear disarmament talks hosted by Beijing that have been boycotted by Pyongyang for over a year.
"If he is really in China, then there'll certainly be discussion of the six-party talks and the nuclear issue," said Cai Jian, a Korea expert at Fudan University in Shanghai.
"Usually, too, China will arrange some trade and aid agreements for a meeting like this," said Cai.
The six-party talks bring together North and South Korea, China, the United States, Japan and Russia. In April 2009 North Korea said it was quitting the talks and reversing nuclear "disablement" steps, unhappy with implementation of an initial disarmament agreement reached in 2007.
"Kim may for tactical reasons say that he is willing to return to the nuclear disarmament talks," said Zhang, the Beijing-based professor. "But the chances of substantive nuclear disarmament by North Korea are close to zero."
(Writing and additional reporting by Chris Buckley in Beijing; Editing by Benjamin Kang Lim and Sanjeev Miglani)
