By Hannington Osodo
LAGOS (Reuters) - A top Nigerian rebel leader has agreed to the terms of a federal amnesty programme, his lawyer said on Sunday, but analysts doubt that militants will halt attacks in Africa's biggest oil sector.
Henry Okah, suspected leader of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), may be freed as early as Sunday after more than a year in detention, one of his lawyers Wilson Ajuwa told Reuters.
"Terms of the amnesty have been settled. The agreement we are going to discuss is the timeline for his release," he said.
Defence lawyers would meet with President Umaru Yar'Adua on Sunday, Ajuwa said, and government officials confirmed a meeting either on Sunday or Monday, but said top ministers rather than the president were likely to attend.
Although some militants have said they would lay down their weapons if Okah is freed, analysts believe violence in the Niger Delta will not subside. Oil theft is a lucrative business in the region and politicians will continue to hire armed gangs to secure power in the run up to 2011 elections, analysts said.
"... Okah's decision notwithstanding, it is unlikely that the militia attacks in the Delta will abate any time soon," Eurasia analyst Sebastian Spio-Garbrah said in a client note.
"It is more likely (violence will) escalate into 2010 as intense political jockeying ahead of the 2011 general election begins," Spio-Garbrah said.
MEND, a loose faction of militant groups that began attacking oil facilities in early 2006, has dismissed the amnesty programme in its current form, but was willing to discuss its demands with the government.
The rebel group is responsible for a string of attacks that has shut down around 300,000 barrels per day of the OPEC member's production since May, lifting global oil prices.
Rebel leaders, who say they are fighting for a greater share of the region's wealth, say Okah's release is just one of many demands the government must meet before peace can be restored.
MEND on Friday sabotaged an oil pipeline recently repaired by U.S. oil major Chevron and threatened further attacks.
Human Rights Watch in June criticised the amnesty programme, saying it would not resolve the Niger Delta crisis because it did not punish the politicians that helped fund armed gangs.
Many of the gunmen behind the kidnappings, oil theft and violent crime in the delta were first hired by local politicians to intimidate opponents or fix elections.
(Additional reporting by Felix Onuah; Writing by Randy Fabi; Editing by Louise Ireland)
