By Richard Lough
PORT LOUIS (Reuters) - Madagascar's army-backed government refused on Friday to guarantee elections by the end of the year, a day after the African Union said all parties had agreed to a presidential poll before 2010.
The political crisis following Andry Rajoelina's seizure of power in March has severely damaged the Indian Ocean island's $390 million (262 million pounds)-a-year tourism sector and unsettled foreign companies investing in Madagascar's oil and mineral sectors.
Recent deadly protests and a spate of arrests in the capital Antananarivo have stoked fears that the Indian Ocean island may slide back into turmoil that hit the country from Jan-March.
"In principle we do not object (to elections this year), but we will have to wait and see if conditions are favourable," Prime Minister Roindefo Monja told Reuters.
"The date will be fixed during forthcoming rounds of national reconciliation which start on May 17th," Monja said by telephone from the Malagasy capital.
The AU special envoy to Madagascar, Ablasse Ouedraogo, said on Thursday that all parties had agreed to a poll by the year's end. Rajoelina has said elections would be held in October 2010.
The AU and South African Development Community (SADC) - which both branded Rajoelina's rise to power a coup and suspended Madagascar from the regional blocs -- have called for elections to be held this year.
Monja's comments indicated an unwillingness to submit to external pressure over an election date. But his statement did not entirely rule out elections this year, a move apparently intended to appease the international community but still give the government space should it want a later poll.
Diplomats say that no administration in Madagascar will be recognised as legitimate until there is a vote.
RESIDENTS WANT STABILITY
Monja said that donors -- several of whom have frozen aid after President Marc Ravalomanana quit power under pressure from the army -- have pressured the government for an earlier vote.
"We need to ensure everyone has identity cards, the electoral code needs to be revised and the voter list needs to be renewed. If there is collaboration then we can do it but not if there are obstacles," Monja said.
Rajoelina, a former disc jockey and Africa's youngest incumbent president, has promised to re-write the constitution.
For some residents of the capital, a city of faded French colonial buildings, the hope is that elections will end the months-long political crisis that has killed some 140 people.
"It is better to hold elections sooner rather than later. This will calm things down and stabilise the political situation," said taxi-driver Victor Razafindratsima, who supports Rajoelina.
Analysts say Rajoelina's leadership is looking increasingly shaky as the government cracks down on political opponents.
"Rajoelina is losing power. There are some heavyweight players who backed him who are manoeuvring and clearly have their own intentions," said Madagascar expert Stephen Ellis, African studies professor at the Free University of Amsterdam.
