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M. Continuo

Portugal's ruling alliance well in lead for Sunday election - poll


    LISBON (Reuters) - Portugal's centre-right ruling coalition held a six- to 12-point lead over the main opposition Socialists in four opinion polls as Sunday's national election neared, but remained shy of a margin sufficient to win an outright majority in parliament.

    The biggest poll so far in the campaign, carried out by the respected Catolica University and released on Thursday, showed the coalition with 38 percent support against 32 percent for the centre-left Socialists.

    Still, the Catolica poll of 3,302 people left the government short of a majority and showed that 15 percent of voters remained undecided. The poll had a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points and was different from the daily tracking polls produced by Catolica.

    Another poll, by Marktest put the coalition on 41 percent of voting intentions, well ahead of the Socialists on 28.6 percent.

    Other polls have indicated a much tighter race even though the austerity-minded ruling alliance has gained in recent months while the Socialists held steady or slipped somewhat. About one in three voters were still undecided in the Marktest survey.

    Given a margin of error of 2.4 percent in the random poll of 1,600 people from Marktest's database, the coalition could get enough votes - that is, close to 44 percent - to secure a majority of seats in the 230-seat parliament, depending on the varying weightings of electoral mandates across Portugal.

    The latest daily tracking polls by Catolica University and by Intercampus pollsters gave the coalition 39 percent and 38.4 percent respectively, with the Socialists not far behind on 34 percent and 32.1 percent.

    Analysts say the prospect of a weak government and the lack of scope for a broad coalition create political risks that could undermine Portugal's reform efforts and recovery from a debt crisis in the next few years.

    Portugal's bailout programme, which it completed in May 2014, has not sparked the major unrest that thrust radical anti-bailout parties into the spotlight in Spain and Greece.

    The Communist party remains the country's largest hard left force, with around 10 percent support.

    Following are the results of latest opinion polls:

    NOTE: PS - Socialist Party; PSD/CDS - centre-right ruling coalition of Social Democrats and rightist CDS-PP; CDU - Communists-Greens alliance. Others - parties without parliament representation, with the leading two - populist PDR and leftist LIVRE - with less than 2 percent support each according to the latest poll. Some include null and void votes in that category.

    PS PSD/CDS CDU Left Bloc Others Pollster Date

    28.6 41.0 9.3 8.7 3.4 Marktest Sept 30

    34.0 39.0 10.0 8.0 5.0 Catolica Sept 30

    32.1 38.4 8.4 7.9 3.9 Intercampus Sept 30

    33.0 39.0 11.0 8.0 5.0 Catolica Sept 29

    31.6 38.8 8.2 7.9 4.0 Intercampus Sept 29

    34.0 40.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 Catolica Sept 28

    32.1 37.9 9.1 7.5 3.9 Intercampus Sept 28

    34.0 41.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 Catolica Sept 27

    33.0 38.1 9.0 6.7 4.1 Intercampus Sept 27

    43.0 33.0 8.0 7.0 5.0 Catolica Sept 26

    32.8 37.5 8.9 6.7 4.5 Intercampus Sept 26

    36.0 35.5 10.1 5.0 13.4 Eurosondagem Sept 25

    35.0 42.0 8.0 7.0 4.0 Catolica Sept 25

    32.3 37.0 9.2 6.1 5.4 Intercampus Sept 25

    32.9 37.9 7.8 6.0 4.5 Intercampus Sept 24

    35 41.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 Catolica Sept 24

    34.1 38.9 8.3 4.8 4.0 Intercampus Sept 23

    35.0 40.0 9.0 8.0 4.0 Catolica Sept 23

    35.7 38.9 7.3 4.4 4.4 Intercampus Sept 22

    34.0 40.0 10.0 8.0 4.0 Catolica Sept 22

    37.1 40.1 6.3 4.0 3.5 Intercampus Sept 21

    35.0 40.0 8.0 7.0 4.0 Catolica Sept 21

    35.0 40.0 8.0 7.0 3.0 Catolica Sept 20

    34.0 40.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 Catolica Sept 19

    34.0 41.0 7.0 8.0 3.0 Catolica Sept 18

    34.7 35.3 8.3 5.8 16.0 Aximage Sept 18

    35.5 34.0 10.3 5.2 15.0 Eurosondagem Sept 18

    33.3 38.9 8.5 4.6 14.4 Aximage Sept 7

    36.0 35.0 10.4 4.6 14.0 Eurosondagem Sept 2

    36.3 34.8 10.0 5.0 13.9 Eurosondagem Aug 7

    38.0 37.8 7.5 4.0 12.7 Aximage July 17

    36.7 34.6 10.2 4.8 13.7 Eurosondagem July 10

    37.6 32.7 11.0 6.0 6.0 Intercampus July 9

    37.0 38.0 10.0 8.0 7.0 Catolica Univ. June 19

    36.9 33.3 10.5 4.5 14.8 Eurosondagem June 12

    38 37.2 7.5 4 13.3 Aximage June 4

    38.1 33.6 10.3 4.8 13.2 Eurosondagem May 12

    37.3 37.2 7.7 4.2 13.6 Aximage May 4

    37.5 34.7 10.2 4.3 13.3 Eurosondagem April 15

    36.9 36.5 9.2 3.5 13.9 Aximage April 8

    (Reporting by Andrei Khalip; Editing by Mark Heinrich)