☰

M. Continuo

Portugal opposition Socialists lead, but no full majority - poll


    LISBON (Reuters) - Portugal's main opposition Socialists opened their strongest lead on the ruling coalition in recent months, an opinion poll showed on Thursday, but they were short of support to secure an outright parliament majority in an election in the autumn.

    The survey by Intercampus pollsters showed the centre-left Socialists with 37.6 percent support, while the centre-right coalition trailed nearly 5 points behind on 32.7 percent.

    Other parties represented in parliament were far behind, with the Communists-Greens alliance on 11 percent and the Left Bloc on 6 percent. The previous Itercampus poll was carried out more than a year ago, and both groups have gained since.

    The projection contrasts with another recent poll, by the Catolica University in June, which put the coalition on 38 percent, one point ahead of their rivals. Most other polls in the past few months showed the Socialists slightly ahead.

    The election is due in September or October. Analysts say that unless polls change, neither the ruling coalition nor the Socialists will be in a situation to form a majority government.

    Last year Lisbon exited an international bailout contracted in 2011 amid an acute debt crisis. The economy is growing again after a long recession, but the government's popularity remains low after painful austerity it applied under the rescue deal.

    The Socialists have vowed to end austerity, but also to meet the country's international commitments for budget deficits and debt reduction. The government has dismissed their promises as impossible to meet and a path to a new bailout.

    Both the Socialists and the main ruling party have ruled out a post-election centrist coalition, but some analysts say such a possibility cannot be discarded in case of a hung parliament.

    Following are the recent opinion polls by the leading pollsters for voting intentions (valid votes):

    NOTE: PS - Socialist Party; PSD/CDS - centre-right ruling coalition of Social Democrats and rightist CDS-PP; CDU - Communists-Greens alliance. Others - parties without parliament representation, with the leading two - populist PDR and leftist LIVRE - with less than 3 percent support each according to the latest poll.

    PS PSD/CDS CDU Left Bloc Others Pollster Date

    37.6 32.7 11.0 6.0 6.0 Intercampus July 9

    37.0 38.0 10.0 8.0 7.0 Catolica Univ. June 19

    36.9 33.3 10.5 4.5 14.8 Eurosondagem June 12

    38 37.2 7.5 4 13.3 Aximage June 4

    38.1 33.6 10.3 4.8 13.2 Eurosondagem May 12

    37.3 37.2 7.7 4.2 13.6 Aximage May 4

    37.5 34.7 10.2 4.3 13.3 Eurosondagem April 15

    36.9 36.5 9.2 3.5 13.9 Aximage April 8

    38.1 33.3 9.6 4.4 14.6 Eurosondagem March 10

    36.1 35.0 10.7 4.0 14.2 Aximage March 6

    (Reporting By Andrei Khalip)