Sudan polls to start despite fraud claims, boycotts

KHARTOUM (Reuters) - Sudan's first multi-party polls in almost quarter of a century are on track to begin on Sunday despite boycotts and fraud allegations that have marred preparations, and few people expect any rerun.

Incumbent President Omar Hassan al-Bashir hopes a win in the complex presidential, legislative and gubernatorial polls would legitimise his government, in defiance of an International Criminal Court warrant for his arrest for war crimes in Darfur.

A Bashir victory is almost certain after his two main rivals withdrew, alleging widespread fraud, but it would be overshadowed by questions over the elections' credibility.

"Even if all these parties participated I don't think there would be fair or credible elections," said Sudanese activist Omer Elgarrei, founder of the Democracy First group.

The elections mark a key stage in a 2005 north-south peace deal which ended Sudan's 22-year civil war, and precede a 2011 referendum on southern independence. The semi-autonomous south is widely expected to secede.

But the international community, in particular Washington, has made it clear that no matter how bad the elections are, their priority is a peaceful referendum.

The election results are likely to stand, even if voting provokes as much controversy as last year's Afghan presidential polls which were marked by fraud.

"These elections could be as bad as Afghanistan but with such a tight timetable before the referendum I doubt anyone will insist on a rerun," said one international source following the polls.

All Sudan's opposition parties agree Bashir's National Congress Party, which has ruled for 21 years, has tried to rig the polls but they failed to agree a joint reaction.

While two of the largest parties agreed to boycott the polls in most of Sudan's north, other smaller groups remain in the race. International observer missions from the European Union and the Carter Centre will still review voting.

However, a seven-year conflict has hindered movement in Darfur. The EU said it could not effectively observe the polls there and withdrew its observers from the western region.

The International Crisis Group think tank said Darfur had been so manipulated, with many of the region's millions of displaced people not registered to vote, that the territory could swing the national vote and secure a win for Bashir.

"Winning big in Darfur is central to the NCP's plan to capture enough votes in the North to ensure its continued national dominance," an ICG report said.

CARTER REGRETS

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter said on Thursday he was disappointed by the boycotts. "I regret that some of the parties have decided not to participate," he told reporters after he arrived in Khartoum to observe the voting.

"We are hoping and praying it will be a fair and honest election, at least for the ones who are participating. You have to remember there are about 16,000 candidates who are still involved in the election," he said.

Sudanese activists say the irregularities began with a flawed 2008 census, demarcating electoral constituencies and fraudulent voter registration.

An umbrella group of civil society bodies called Tamam said that more than 1,900 security force members were registered to vote at a tiny police post on an island in the river Nile in Khartoum. Only five policemen are stationed there.

"There are so many irregularities that have taken place that cannot be retrieved," said Tamam member al-Baqir Alafif.

The election campaign has witnessed some rare political freedoms. Direct newspaper censorship was lifted, opposition politicians were given some air time on live television and about 30 young Sudanese protested outside the National Elections Commission, carrying a coffin which they said symbolised the body's integrity.

But the same activists from a group called Girifna, which means "We are fed up," say they were arrested and harassed with one member tortured and still in hiding.

"Our main guys have been threatened," said Girifna founder Nagi Musa. After the elections they feared a crackdown against the group which distributes leaflets urging people to change the government peacefully at the ballot box, he said.

"The international community should acknowledge that whoever wins will lack legitimacy," says Fouad Hikmat, ICG's special adviser on Sudan.