Musharraf's rivals head for vote win

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistani President PervezMusharraf's opponents headed for election victory on Tuesdayafter voters rejected his former ruling party, raisingquestions about the future of the U.S. ally who has ruled since1999.

No party is expected to win a majority in the 342-seatNational Assembly but the opposition parties of assassinatedformer prime minister Benazir Bhutto and another former primeminister, Nawaz Sharif, were set to be the biggest.

Whichever is bigger will be best placed to lead acoalition.

As president, former army chief Musharraf did not contestMonday's elections, aimed at completing a transition tocivilian rule, but the outcome could seal his fate.

A hostile parliament could try to remove Musharraf, whotook power as a general in a 1999 coup and emerged as a crucialU.S. ally in a "war on terror" that most Pakistanis think isWashington's, not theirs.

The election was relatively peaceful after a bloodycampaign and opposition fears of rampant rigging by Musharraf'ssupporters proved unfounded.

Pakistan's main stock market welcomed the peaceful pollsand absence of complaints over rigging, and shares rose morethan 1 percent early. But dealers said the formation of aparliament hostile to Musharraf would make investors nervous.

The vote was postponed from January 8 after Bhutto wasassassinated in a suicide attack on December 27, which raisedconcern about the nuclear-armed country's stability.

Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) had been expected toreap a sympathy vote and was winning the most seats, partialresults showed.

Unofficial Election Commission tallies also showed Sharif'sparty doing surprisingly well and leading in Punjab provincewhere half the members of parliament will be elected.

As results came in showing prominent members of thepro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (PML) losing seats,analysts weighed the implications for a president whosepopularity has slumped over the past year.

"It's the moment of truth for the president," said AbbasNasir, editor of the Dawn newspaper. "There will be thoughtsswirling in his mind, whether he can forge a workingrelationship with two parties whose leadership he kept out ofthe country."

Bhutto spent eight years in self-exile to avoid corruptioncharges she denied. Sharif was exiled a year after Musharrafousted him in 1999. Both returned late last year.

Sharif was barred from the election because of pastcriminal convictions he says were politically motivated.

At 0520 GMT, according to unofficial results from 206seats, the PPP had won 65, Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League(Nawaz) had 59 and the PML 27. Small parties and independentsshared the others. Full unofficial results are due later onTuesday.

"ANTI-MUSHARRAF VOTE"

Despite a mixed record as prime minister, when he clashedwith the judiciary, Sharif's defiance of old foe Musharraf andsupport for the judges he purged appeared to have paid off.

Analysts say Musharraf wants a coalition between the PPPand the PML. A victory for Sharif, who has repeatedly calledfor Musharraf's removal, would be disastrous for the president.

Some analysts said the decisive factor in the PML's defeatwas Musharraf, who angered many Pakistanis when he imposed sixweeks of emergency rule and purged the judiciary, andresentment over inflation, food shortages and power cuts.

Several top PML members, including its president ChaudhryShujaat Hussain and former cabinet ministers, lost their seats.

Groups of happy opposition supporters celebrated in thestreets in cites across the country as results trickled out.

"The election seems fair because Musharraf had no choice.He was under pressure because he was losing support of theWest," said Lahore hotel worker Hussain Gardez.

Musharraf has said he would accept the results and workwith whoever won to build democracy in a country that hasalternated between civilian and army rule throughout its60-year history.

Fear appeared to have kept many people from the polls,despite 80,000 troops backing up police. A poll watchdog groupestimated turnout of 35 percent.

More than 450 people have been killed in militant-relatedviolence this year but election-day violence, though bad inplaces, was not as severe as many had feared.

Twenty people were killed, including 15 PPP activists,Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari said.

A secular ethnic Pashtun nationalist party was winning inNorth West Frontier Province, defeating Islamic parties thatwon there in the last elections in 2002.

(To read more about the Pakistan election double click on;and visit the Reuters blog "Pakistan: Now or Never?" athttp://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/)

(Additional reporting by Zeeshan Haider, Faisal Aziz andSahar Ahmed in Karachi; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)