Musharraf allies face major defeat in Pakistan vote
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - The party that backs PakistaniPresident Pervez Musharraf was headed for a major defeat onTuesday after voters rallied to the opposition, raisingquestions about the future of the U.S. ally who has ruled since1999.
As president, former army chief Musharraf did not contestMonday's parliamentary elections aimed at completing atransition to civilian rule, but the outcome could seal hisfate.
A hostile parliament could try to remove Musharraf, whotook power as a general in a 1999 coup and emerged as a crucialU.S. ally in a "war on terror" that most Pakistanis think isWashington's, not theirs.
The election was relatively peaceful after a bloodycampaign and opposition fears of rampant rigging by Musharraf'ssupporters appeared unfounded.
The vote was postponed from January 8 after theassassination of former prime minister and opposition leaderBenazir Bhutto in a suicide attack on December 27, which raisedconcern about the nuclear-armed country's stability.
Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has been expected toreap a sympathy vote and was doing well, early results showed.
But unofficial Election Commission tallies showed the othermain opposition party, led by former prime minister NawazSharif, leading in Punjab province where half the members ofparliament will be elected.
No party is expected to win a majority in the 342-seatNational Assembly but either Bhutto's PPP or Sharif's PakistanMuslim League (Nawaz), was set to be biggest.
Whichever is bigger will be best placed to lead acoalition.
As results came in showing prominent members of thePakistan Muslim League (PML) which backs Musharraf losingseats, analysts weighed the implications for a president whosepopularity has slumped over the past year.
"It's the moment of truth for the president," said AbbasNasir, editor of the Dawn newspaper.
"There will be thoughts swirling in his mind, whether hecan forge a working relationship with two parties whoseleadership he kept out of the country."
Bhutto spent eight years in self-exile to avoid corruptioncharges she denied. Sharif was exiled a year after Musharrafousted him in 1999. Both returned late last year.
Sharif was barred from the election because of pastcriminal convictions he says were politically motivated.
"ANTI-MUSHARRAF VOTE"
Despite a mixed record as prime minister, when he clashedwith the judiciary, Sharif's defiance of old foe Musharraf andsupport for the judges he purged appeared to have paid off.
A victory for Sharif, who Musharraf ousted in 1999, wouldbe a disaster for Musharraf. Sharif has repeatedly called forMusharraf's removal and analysts say Musharraf wants acoalition between the PPP and the PML.
Some analysts said the decisive factor in the PML's defeatwas Musharraf, who angered many Pakistanis when he imposed sixweeks of emergency rule and purged the judiciary, andresentment over inflation, food shortages and power cuts.
"There's an anti-Musharraf vote, definitely," politicalanalyst Kamran Shafi told Dawn Television.
PML president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, a former primeminister, lost his seat in Punjab to a Bhutto party candidate,television networks said. Several other top PML members,including ministers in the outgoing government, also lostseats.
Groups of opposition supporters celebrated in the streetsof Lahore, Rawalpindi and Karachi as results trickled out.
Full unofficial election results are due later on Tuesday.
Musharraf said on Monday he would work with whoever won tobuild democracy in a country that has alternated betweencivilian and army rule throughout its 60-year history:"Everyone should accept the results, that includes myself," hesaid.
Fear appeared to have kept many people from the polls,despite 80,000 troops backing up police, although a pollwatchdog group said initial estimates suggested turnout ofnearly 42 percent, almost matching that in the last election in2002.
A suicide bomb campaign waged by al Qaeda-inspiredmilitants has added to a mounting sense of insecurity. Morethan 450 people have been killed in militant-related violencethis year, many in the northwest where religious parties faredpoorly.
Election-day violence, though bad in places, was not assevere as many had feared. Twenty people were killed, including15 PPP activists, Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari said.
The poll watchdog group said there had been a few incidentsof polling irregularities.
Western allies hope for a stable Pakistan focused onfighting militancy, as do investors in a stock market that rose40 percent last year but has shed about 3 percent sinceBhutto's death.
(To read more about the Pakistan election visit the Reutersblog "Pakistan: Now or Never?" athttp://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/)
(Additional reporting by Zeeshan Haider, Kamran Haider andJon Hemming in Lahore, Faisal Aziz and Sahar Ahmed in Karachiand Simon Gardner in Larkana)