Edgy Haiti waits to see who will contest presidency
PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - Haitians will learn on Wednesday who will contest the presidency in a March run-off election shrouded in political uncertainty and complicated by the possible return home of a polarizing former leader.
Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) is scheduled to announce definitive first-round results from chaotic November 28 elections that triggered riots and fraud allegations in the poor, volatile Caribbean state.
The council has to decide who will join former first lady Mirlande Manigat in the March 20 run-off -- popular musician Michel Martelly or government-backed Jude Celestin. Manigat had the most first-round votes but not enough to win outright.
The renewed instability comes in the wake of a massive crippling earthquake a year ago that killed more than 300,000 people and a deadly cholera epidemic that has heaped misery on inhabitants of the Western Hemisphere's poorest state.
The uncertain outlook has been further clouded by the reappearance of ghosts from Haiti's turbulent past. Former dictator Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier came home from exile in January, running into corruption and human rights charges, and firebrand populist ex-President Jean-Bertrand Aristide is also preparing a homecoming from exile.
The United States, United Nations and Organisation of American States have weighed in to try to avoid an electoral debacle and more unrest that could threaten billions of dollars of reconstruction aid pledged by foreign donors.
They have pressed Haitian authorities to adopt an OAS report that recommends revising preliminary Haitian results to put Martelly in the run-off in place of Celestin. OAS experts cited irregularities in vote tallies from November's vote.
Despite a visit on Sunday by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to ram home U.S. backing for the OAS option, the Provisional Electoral Council has given no clear indication that it will follow the OAS recommendation.
Celestin, a government technocrat and protege of outgoing President Rene Preval, has refused to drop out despite pressure from his own INITE party.
ARISTIDE WILD CARD
There is expectation that the OAS-recommended Manigat-Martelly line-up for the second round will prevail, not least because of the threat of protests by Martelly supporters if their candidate is excluded. They rioted in December when initial results from the electoral council put Celestin in the runoff, narrowly ahead of Martelly.
"Now the CEP sees what the people want and now the United States, a strong power, is making them stand up for what the people want. They will kick Jude (Celestin) out (of the runoff). It's Martelly we want," said Jean-Claude Dece, 38, a construction worker and Martelly supporter.
"There are no good options in Haiti but accepting the OAS formula and moving to a second round on March 20 appears to be the best one," Michael Shifter, president of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue, told Reuters.
He and other analysts saw the possible return of Aristide, a leftist former Roman Catholic priest who can mobilise fanatical supporters, as a potentially disruptive wild card in the already roiled political climate.
"Aristide still has many supporters in Haiti and they are passionately committed to him," Shifter said. "But Aristide also arouses strong passions on the other side and his return is bound to make an orderly process in Haiti more problematic."
Aristide became Haiti's first freely elected president in 1990 before being driven out by an armed revolt in 2004. There are fears that if he comes back before the runoff, it could cause unrest and hinder the second round.
"Unfortunately, everything is possible in that environment," said Eduardo Gamarra, a Latin America and Caribbean expert at Florida International University.
Some diplomats speculate the electoral council might opt for a three-way runoff between Manigat, Celestin and Martelly, given the tiny, disputed margins separating the last two.
Preval's presidential mandate formally ends on February 7 although he has parliament approval to stay on if necessary until May 14 so he can hand over to an elected successor.
(Writing by Pascal Fletcher; Editing by Bill Trott)