Oil price holds above $48 as market stabilizes

LONDON (Reuters) - Brent crude futures held above $48 on Tuesday as a weaker dollar offset the impact of a global supply glut, with traders questioning if the nearly 60 percent price fall since June has run its course.

Brent hit $45.19 on Jan. 13, the lowest since 2009 and down from a June 2014 peak of $115.71, but has since traded in a narrow band of $47-$50.62.

"The market is looking for the right momentum to push oil prices higher," said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro bank in the Netherlands.

He said the fact Brent was slightly higher on Tuesday did not necessarily mean the rout was over yet.

"We're still closing lower every week compared to the week before."

Brent futures were trading at $48.28 a barrel, up 12 cents, by 1438 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 25 cents at $45.40 a barrel.

Oil prices have slumped nearly 60 percent since peaking in June, driven lower by ample supplies from the U.S. shale oil boom and a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to cut output quotas.

OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri said on Monday that oil prices may have reached a floor and warned of a spike to $200 a barrel if investment in new supply capacity was too low.

Analysts were more bearish.

Swiss bank UBS said it could take several years for prices to recover as it lowered its 2015 forecasts for Brent to $52.50 a barrel and WTI to $49 a barrel.

"We do not forecast oil prices to reach $90/$85 Brent/WTI until 2018," the bank said in a note to clients.

Germany's Commerzbank said it expected prices to rise during the course of the year, but not in the short term.

"We see a risk of the price falling further in the direction of $40 per barrel," it said in a note to clients. "After all, the market will remain significantly over supplied in the next few weeks."

The next data on supply will come later on Tuesday from U.S. commercial crude stockpiles, which likely rose nearly 4 million barrels last week, a Reuters survey showed. [EIA/S]

U.S. crude stockpiles posted their largest weekly build since 2001 the previous week.

Trading volumes are likely to be limited later on Tuesday, however, as a snow storm is expected to disrupt transport in New York.

(Additional reporting by Florence Tan and Henning Gloystein in Singapore; Editing by Michael Urquhart)