RMA/AFS Risk Analysis Service Metrics Show Accelerated Deterioration in Middle Market Credit Quality



    The Risk Management Association (RMA), in alliance with Automated
    Financial Systems, Inc. (AFS), this week released its commercial
    credit risk benchmarking data updated through fourth quarter 2007. The
    fourth quarter results reflect portfolio data for middle market
    exposure provided by 16 top tier participating institutions, estimated
    to represent over one-half of all middle market commercial loans in
    the U.S.

    The non-accrual percentage of middle market loans began to rise
    over one year ago and now represent 0.68% of total loan outstanding
    balances. This figure represents a 21% increase over the prior quarter
    and a 79% increase from year-end 2006. From an industry perspective,
    the construction sector continues to lead the deterioration with 1.99%
    of these loans now being reported as non-accruing, up 66% and 315%
    over prior quarter and year-ago periods, respectively. From a
    delinquency perspective, the construction sector was also the weakest
    performing industry. Loans past due 30 to 89 days now represent 1.36%
    of the outstandings for the sector, up 68% from the year ago period
    and double the national average ratio of 0.64%. These trends also
    suggest non-accrual levels will continue to rise in upcoming quarters.

    "The deterioration found in the Risk Analysis Service portfolio
    metrics confirms the challenges that financial institutions will face
    over the upcoming quarters. Institutions that are able to stay abreast
    of the changing credit quality of the middle market will be able to
    make better informed decisions," said Kevin Blakely, RMA president and
    CEO.

    These findings come from the RMA/AFS Risk Analysis Service, a
    global credit risk data collection service that enables participating
    banks to compare their respective risk profiles in defined portfolio
    segments to industry peers and the industry as a whole. The Service
    allows participants to gain real-time insights into changing credit
    quality, portfolio concentrations, and answers the critical question
    of "How do we compare?" in these turbulent times.

    Institutions participating in the Service now have access to an
    expanded set of risk rating metrics. In addition to borrower risk
    ratings, institutions are now able to segment their portfolios by
    measures of default probability, loss given default, and expected
    loss, risk parameters mandated by the international Basel II rules.

    For additional information on the Risk Analysis Service, please
    contact Suzanne Wharton at RMA at +1 (215) 446-4089 or Doug Skinner at
    AFS at +1 (484) 875-1562.