Thai PM will not stand down, says minister

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has no intention to bow to street protesters' demands and dissolve parliament, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Thursday as red shirts massed in Bangkok.

Despite the calm as Bangkok celebrated the final day of Thailand's new year holiday under a scorching sun, political analysts said Abhisit's days were numbered and warned the risk of a military coup was escalating.

"He is not intending to do it," Korn, a fellow student of Abhisit at Oxford, told Reuters in an interview when asked whether Abhisit would dissolve parliament after weekend violence killed 22 people.

"It would be very negative for the country in the long term."

"Red shirt" protesters stocked up on supplies at their base at an upmarket shopping district that they have vowed to make the final battleground in a quest to topple the government.

Financial markets reopen on Friday when shares are expected to fall after a 3.64 percent plunge on Monday following the weekend fighting.

"We aren't making any move in the next couple of days as we will be busily putting facilities in place for our brothers and sisters after they return from the countryside," red shirt protest leader Nattawut Saikua said.

There seems no quick solution in sight to the protest campaign, which has lasted more than a month, and it looks set to hit growth in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.

Korn said he was not too concerned that the political uncertainty is weakening the Thai baht because a softer baht would benefit exporters.

"People were concerned that it was getting a bit ahead of itself. A bit of softness, given that we are a net export country, that is not a bad thing," he said.

Investment bank Morgan Stanley calculates economic growth this year could be cut by 0.2 percentage point due to the impact on tourism, which accounts for 6 percent of gross domestic product in the "Land of Smiles" and employs 1.8 million people.

A bigger hit of up to 0.6 percentage points of GDP could come from the loss of consumer confidence. The government has forecast 4.5 percent growth this year if the protests are not prolonged.

A taste of the economic damage came from a tour operator group that said hotel occupancy rates in the capital were under 30 percent, less than the usual 80-90 percent. Bars in the famous Nana plaza district were noticeably quiet.

"We are bleeding continuously as tour cancellations are made non-stop," Charoen Wangananont, a spokesman for the Federation of Thai Tourism Associations, told local cable news network TNN.

On Langsuan Road, close to the protest site, a hotel porter dragged designer luggage down a small alley to bypass roadblocks.

"Soon the hotel will be empty. It's almost a ghost hotel now," said the porter who spoke on condition of anonymity. He said occupancy rate at his hotel had dropped to 5 percent.

The road is home to the Grand Hyatt, the Four Seasons, and Marriott Courtyard among other luxury hotels and serviced apartments. Occupancy at the Marriott was just 8.5 percent, a receptionist said.

ABSENT ABHISIT

The police and army did not intervene to prevent protesters from gathering and were not in evidence on Thursday after another peaceful night in the Thai capital.

Protesters gathered in their thousands under umbrellas with some covering themselves with plastic sheets under the scorching sun as the temperature reached 38 degrees Celsius (97 Fahrenheit). Others were sitting in the shade on roadsides or taking naps under tents as folk music played on stage.

Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn estimated the crowd size at 30,000 on Wednesday night and 3,000 on Thursday morning.

The red shirts, mostly supporters of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, want Abhisit to quit immediately and have said they will use their base in the Rachaprasong business district as a "final battleground".

Abhisit has been largely absent from the media, ensconced in a fortified army base on the outskirts of Bangkok.

"The situation is not normal so he (Abhisit) probably cannot talk to the press daily but he will communicate with the public from time to time," Panitan said.

But his chances of political survival were seen as bleak.

"Badly damaged by the military response, Abhisit now has no other options than to go to the country or resign, both of which will set Thailand on course for an early election," risk consultancy Control Risks said in a report published on Thursday.

"If threatened further by political instability, created for example by snap polls, the threat of military leaders launching a coup would rapidly escalate."

Thailand has had 18 coups in the past 77 years, most recently in 2006 when Thaksin was ousted. (http://www.facebook.com/thaksinlive). (Additional reporting by Ambika Ahuja; Writing by Nick Macfie; Editing by Jeremy Laurence)