Bush promises to be constructive at G8

TOYAKO, Japan (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bushpromised on Sunday to be constructive in talks on globalwarming but said a deal was impossible unless fast-growingChina and India agreed to limit their greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change is high on the agenda of the annual summitof the Group of Eight rich nations that starts on Monday at aluxury hotel on the lush northern Japanese island of Hokkaido.

"I'll be constructive. I've always advocated that thereneeds to be a common understanding and that starts with agoal," Bush told a news conference after meeting Japanese PrimeMinister Yasuo Fukuda, the host of the three-day summit.

"And I also am realistic enough to tell you that if Chinaand India don't share that same aspiration, then we're notgoing to solve the problem," said Bush, who turned 62 onSunday.

China, India and 12 other countries will join the regularmembers of the G8 -- the United States, Japan, France, Britain,Germany, Canada, Italy and Russia -- for parts of the summit.

Global inflation driven by soaring food and fuel priceswill be high on a crowded agenda, as will efforts to alleviateAfrican poverty. Leaders are also likely to condemn theviolence that preceded last month's presidential election inZimbabwe and will discuss North Korea's nuclear programme.

EMPTY SLOGAN

Developing nations including China and India want richstates to shoulder most of the burden of cutting greenhousegases under a planned pact to replace the Kyoto Protocol, whichexpires in 2012. U.N.-led talks on a new framework are due toconclude in Copenhagen in December next year.

But wide gaps within the G8 as well as between rich anddeveloping countries have raised doubts about the chances forprogress beyond last year's summit in Germany, where G8 leadersagreed to "seriously consider" a global goal of halvinggreenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

South Africa, which is also at this year's summit,highlighted the divisions by demanding that rich countries gomuch further and reduce their emissions by 25-40 percent from1990 levels by 2020 and by 80-95 percent by 2050.

"Without mid-term targets and without a baseline, thetarget of 50 percent by 2050 is an empty slogan with nosubstance," Environment Minister Marthinus van Schalkwyk toldreporters.

Japan wants the leaders to agree to the 2050 goal butwithout specifying a base year.

"Climate change is one of the most serious challengesmankind faces," said Fukuda, who is hoping to forge a strongsummit statement on the issue to hoist his poor poll ratings.

Analysts and diplomats have said that the G8 leaders werelikely to craft a fuzzy agreement on a long-term goal to allowFukuda to save face, but that real progress will likely have towait until a new U.S. president takes office in January.

"I don't think we're expecting a deal. That will come underthe United Nations' auspices in Copenhagen next year," CanadianEnvironment Minister John Baird told reporters en route toJapan.

"What we hope is that we can get some momentum toward asolid progress on climate change," Baird said.

POLICE ON ALERT

Tokyo and Washington say specific interim targets are noton the table in Hokkaido, although leaders are likely toacknowledge the need for advanced countries to set them.

Flanked by Bush, Fukuda said that Japanese and U.S. viewson global warming were gradually converging. "As the chair ofthis G8, I have been asking for his support and I think he hasshown his understanding," the Japanese prime minister said.

With the attendance of several African leaders, this is thelargest gathering since rich-country summits began at theChateau de Rambouillet outside Paris in November 1975.

Then, as now, leaders are confronted by a spike in the costof oil, which hit a record high of $145.85 a barrel onThursday. Oil has soared 50 percent so far this year.

"Rising oil and food prices are having a serious impact onthe global economy and we agreed that prompt steps are neededto tackle that," Fukuda said.

"Our economy is not growing as robustly as we'd like," saidBush, who is attending his eighth and final G8 summit.

One difference from the early summits is that security isnow stifling. Japan has mobilised 21,000 police to protect theleaders and prevent thousands of anti-G8 activists who havepoured into Hokkaido from disrupting the summit.

Some have taken up residence in three camps near the hotel.

"We feel honoured that my camp was chosen as the site. Fromwhat I'm hearing, I support their activity," said Akeji Takai,the owner of one of camps.

(Additional reporting by David Ljunggren and Lucy Hornby;Writing by Alan Wheatley; Editing by Rodney Joyce)