Mexico says flu peak over but pandemic risk lingers
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico has moved past the peak of an H1N1 flu epidemic and is in the "phase of descent," the government said on Sunday, although world health officials still say the unpredictable virus could become a pandemic.
Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said the outbreak appeared to have peaked in Mexico between April 23 and 28 and fewer people had admitted themselves to hospitals with serious flu symptoms in the last few days.
"The evolution of the epidemic is now in its phase of descent," he told a news conference in Mexico City, where millions of people heeded government advice to stay at home. "There is evidence that we are going downward."
He added, though, that it was too early for Mexico -- the epicentre of an outbreak that has spread to 19 countries -- to let down its guard.
New cases of the virus, which mixes swine, avian and human flu strains, were still being tracked across the world. Colombia became the latest country to report a confirmed case of the disease.
The U.S. government said on Sunday it hoped to have a vaccine ready for the new flu strain by the autumn.
Mexico has seen a stabilization in the last few days, with fewer people dying from the new flu. Health authorities have scaled back their estimate of how many people could have died from the flu strain to more than 100, from as many as 176.
Only 19 deaths in the country have been confirmed as being caused by the new virus.
In Geneva, the World Health Organisation said the H1N1 influenza had not spread in a sustained way outside North America, as required before the pandemic alert is raised to its highest level. But it said that would probably happen soon.
"I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent because we are seeing the disease spread," Michael Ryan, WHO director of Global Alert and Response, said on Saturday.
In Canada, health officials said a traveller carried the virus from Mexico to Canada and infected his family and a herd of swine.
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency said the herd had been quarantined and the safety of the food supply was not affected. But the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation said the Canadian case was a reason for concern and confirmed the need for increased surveillance of pig farms.
Few countries are ready to take chances with the new virus, widely dubbed swine flu.
Action by Chinese authorities to hold Mexicans in hotels and other places, irrespective of whether they were ill or not, sparked a diplomatic dispute with Mexico.
In Hong Kong, police quarantined a hotel for one week after a Mexican guest was found to have the virus, and Mexicans also were being confined in Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere.
Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa criticized China, saying Mexicans who showed no signs of illness were being "isolated, under unacceptable conditions.
Hong Kong is under Chinese control but has its own government. The authorities in Hong Kong have confined about 300 guests and staff in the hotel. China said its steps were justified and lawful.
Asia's trade and tourism could be hit by the flu outbreak but lessons learned from the SARS epidemic in 2003 would boost efforts to counter the effects, Jong-Wha Lee, acting chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, said on Sunday.
SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, killed more than 800 people around the world in 2003. It first appeared in southern China in late 2002 and began spreading in early 2003.
FEWER PATIENTS WITH FEVERS
The WHO said its laboratories had identified 787 H1N1 flu infections in 17 countries, including a case in Ireland, and there were 19 confirmed deaths in Mexico. Its toll lags national reports but is considered more scientifically secure.
The United States, the second hardest-hit nation, has confirmed 160 cases in 21 states. President Barack Obama said the country was taking measures to halt the flu's spread.
Public hospitals in Mexico have noted a decline drop in patients turning up with fevers, suggesting the infection rate is declining as people scrub their hands with sanitizer and avoid crowds. Mexico City's streets were empty on Sunday.
U.S. officials said they were encouraged by the developments in Mexico but added it was too early to relax.
Almost all infections outside Mexico have been mild. The only death in another country has been a Mexican toddler who was taken to the United States before he became ill.
British Health Secretary Alan Johnson on Sunday said the spread of the new flu strain has been contained in Britain but there will be more confirmed cases.
Scientists are still trying to assess how the new virus behaves and compares to regular seasonal flu strains, which kill between 250,000 and 500,000 globally every year.
WHO hiked its alert level to 5 from 3 last week -- the last step before a pandemic -- due to the flu's spread and the threat it could target poor communities.
(Additional reporting by Jason Lange, Louise Egan in Mexico City, Tan Ee Lyn in Hong Kong, Laura MacInnis in Geneva, Allan Dowd in Vancouver and Yoo Choonsik in Nusa Dua; Editing by Will Dunham)