Unpopular Japan PM's job at risk after Tokyo vote

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's opposition Democratic Party was likely to win the most seats and the ruling bloc could lose its majority in a Tokyo election on Sunday that is seen as a barometer for a looming national poll, Kyodo news agency said.

Defeat in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election would intensify ruling party moves to oust unpopular Prime Minister Taro Aso ahead of an election for parliament's lower house due by October. Kyodo based its predictions on exit polls.

The Democrats had outstripped Aso's long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner in opinion polls ahead of the closely watched Tokyo vote, mirroring its lead for the upcoming national election.

Aso has been thought to be eying an early August national vote, but many in the LDP were already opposed to a move they fear would be political suicide.

Close Aso ally Yoshihide Suga, deputy chairman of the LDP's election strategy council, denied on Sunday that the party might bring forward a leadership vote and replace Aso ahead of the national election.

"That is impossible," he said in a debate on Fuji TV. "Of course it will be the prime minister who calls the election."

UNBROKEN RULE

A Democratic Party victory in the lower house election would end half a century of nearly unbroken rule by the business-friendly LDP and raise the chances of resolving a deadlock in a divided parliament as Japan tries to recover from its worst recession since World War Two.

Aso's term as LDP leader expires in September and critics in the party are keen to bring forward the leadership vote to replace him ahead of the general election.

Possible candidates to replace Aso include Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare Yoichi Masuzoe, 60, a former academic and TV commentator seen as competent and hardworking.

But Aso is Japan's third premier to take office since Junichiro Koizumi led the party to a huge win in a 2005 election, so voters might not be impressed with another change at the top.

The Democrats, hoping to intensify pressure on the ruling bloc, are considering submitting a no-confidence motion against Aso in the lower house.

But Japan's biggest opposition party has its own headache.

Democratic Party leader Yukio Hatoyama has apologised for the fact that some people listed as his political donors were dead. But the LDP -- although far from immune to scandals itself -- is pressing for him to appear in parliament over the affair.

Hatoyama took over as party leader in May after his predecessor stepped down to keep a separate fundraising scandal from hurting the party's chances at the polls.

(Reporting by Linda Sieg)