By Vladimir Soldatkin and Sabina Zawadzki
MOSCOW/KIEV (Reuters) - Russia said on Wednesday the chances were receding that a gas deal will be clinched with Ukraine to avoid a threatened January 1 gas cut-off that could disrupt supplies to customers in Europe.
Russia has said it will turn off the taps to Ukraine unless a new contract on gas supplies is signed by the end of Wednesday, alarming European states that receive most of their Russian gas from pipelines crossing Ukraine.
"Frankly speaking, if yesterday we were putting the chances at 50:50, today it is maybe a 70:30 probability of a crisis scenario," Sergei Kupriyanov, spokesman for Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom, told a news conference.
Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko had planned to come to Moscow to try to unblock the dispute but later cancelled her trip, a source close to the government told Reuters.
The odds of a last-minute deal lengthened after Gazprom accused Ukraine of blackmailing Europe over gas transit across its territory and said it had not received the $2 billion (1.36 billion pounds) Kiev said earlier it had transferred to settle gas debts.
"Negotiations with Ukraine have not led to any definite result. The position Ukraine is taking...is not constructive," Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said in a televised statement.
"We hope that in the hours left until the New Year we will be able to reach an agreement," he said.
"If there is no agreement by 00:00 (9 p.m. British time) then by 10:00 a.m. on January 1 Russia will have no legal obligation to deliver gas beyond the ... border with Ukraine."
Ukraine said it guaranteed supplies of Russian gas through its territory to Europe, contradicting Gazprom allegations that Kiev was planning to confiscate fuel bound for Europe if Moscow cuts off supplies destined for Ukraine's own use.
European states are anxious to avoid a repeat of January 2006 when, during a similar row over arrears, Moscow cut off supplies to Ukraine, causing a brief fall in gas pressure for some European consumers.
Europe depends on Russia for a quarter of its gas supplies. Germany's E.ON and BASF and Italy's ENI are among the biggest customers.
Analysts say European states can last for several days without Russian supplies because a mild winter and reduced demand linked to the economic slowdown have left them with abundant gas reserves.
"While hoping that a deal can be reached tonight, we see no material negative consequences if the final agreement is delayed for a few days," Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital said in a research note.
BLACKMAIL ALLEGATION
The gas row could further damage confidence in Ukraine's spluttering economy. The hryvnia currency suffered steep falls this month, and an International Monetary Fund loan has failed to halt an exodus by investors.
In addition to the debt repayment, disputes remained over the amount Ukraine would pay for gas deliveries next year. Without a contract for 2009, Gazprom says it cannot supply gas after the current deal expires at the end of Wednesday.
Gazprom officials said they had received a letter from Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz stating that if Russia turns off the gas, Ukraine could confiscate Russian fuel bound for Western Europe.
"We cannot describe this position from Ukraine as anything other than blackmail," said Alexander Medvedev, head of Gazprom's export arm. "And they are blackmailing Gazprom, Russia and western Europe."
In Kiev, Naftogaz declined to comment on the letter. But President Viktor Yushchenko's First Deputy Chief of Staff, Oleksander Shlapak, said Ukraine guaranteed uninterrupted transit of Russian gas to Europe through its territory.
Russia denies any political motive behind the row, saying it is purely a business dispute and that it will do everything it can to maintain smooth supplies to Europe.
However, relations between Russia and Ukraine have been fraught since pro-Western leaders came to power in Kiev in 2004 and started to push for membership of the NATO alliance.
In previous disputes, Russia accused Ukraine of illegally siphoning off gas that was destined for European customers.
This year Ukraine says it has sufficient gas reserves to meet domestic demand, but it has warned that the fall in pressure in the pipeline system caused by a Gazprom cut-off could have a knock-on effect on deliveries to Europe.
(Additional reporting by Pavel Polityuk in Kiev and Dmitri Zhdannikov in Moscow; Writing by Christian Lowe; Editing by )