Chavez has big lead ahead of Venezuela election

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez holds a large lead over opposition candidate Henrique Capriles less than four months before the South American OPEC nation's election, a new opinion poll showed on Tuesday.

The survey by respected local pollster Datanalisis found that 43.6 percent of voters favour Chavez versus 27.7 percent for the Democratic Unity coalition's candidate Capriles.

The 57-year-old Chavez, who has been battling cancer for a year, remains popular in his 14th year in power due to his oil-financed welfare spending and his enduring emotional connection with the country's poor majority.

State governor Capriles, 39, however, is drawing big crowds on the campaign trail and exuding an image of youth and energy that he believes will tip the balance come voting day on October 7.

Datanalisis said the portion of undecided voters in its May survey stood at a substantial 28.7 percent - bearing out analysts' consensus that there is a lot left to play for.

The Datanalisis survey was in line with most of the country's best-known pollsters, who give Chavez a double-digit lead with less than four months remaining until the ballot.

Opinion polls are notoriously controversial in Venezuela, with both sides regularly accusing the companies that publish them of being biased and having political links.

"All the serious polls in this country, including one that is totally opposition, give Chavez an advantage of between 16 and 25 points," Information Minister Andres Izarra told Reuters.

"And the campaign has still not started," he added, referring to the formal July 1 beginning of the election race.

CANCER MYSTERY

While Chavez appears to be in a strong position, analysts said the volatility of Venezuelan voters and the mystery over his health mean the 2012 presidential race is far from over.

Datanalisis head, Luis Vicente Leon, told Reuters a smaller phone survey of 700 people after the formal registering of Chavez and Capriles' candidacies last week showed Chavez with a smaller, 14-point gap over Capriles. He gave no more details.

After three operations to remove two cancerous tumours in the last year, and lengthy absences in Cuba for treatment, Chavez has returned to the public limelight in the last two weeks with regular appearances on state TV and in public.

Details of his condition, however, remain a state secret.

Although he is not walking much in public, Chavez has insisted he is recovering and that he will crush Capriles on election day.

Capriles said some opinion polls are skewed and that his nationwide "house-by-house" campaign is gathering steam and putting him on course to unseat the socialist leader.

Both he and Chavez drew hundreds of thousands of supporters onto the streets when they registered with the national election board earlier this month. The opposition candidate wants to end Chavez's radical, statist policies and install a Brazilian-style "modern left" administration.

The Datanalisis poll for May showed Capriles up 2 percentage points from the previous month's survey, and Chavez up 0.7 percentage points.

Another survey on Tuesday - by pollster Gis XXI, which is run by a former Chavez minister - also gave the president a healthy lead with 57.8 percent of voter intentions versus 23 percent for Capriles.

The two candidates sparred bitterly on Monday over the possibility of a face-to-face televised campaign debate.

Chavez said he would be "ashamed" to square off with a "non-entity" like Capriles, while the opposition flagbearer said the president was better at insulting than debating.

(Writing by Andrew Cawthorne; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Christopher Wilson)