Un yen más barato y las pequeñas empresas en Reino Unido favorecerán a la renta variable

Por Raimundo Martín, director general de Mirabaud Asset Management en España, Portugal y Latinoamérica.

Todo parece indicar que el banco central japonés podría anunciar nuevas medidas de estímulo el próximo verano.

La decisión de la entidad de mantener la situación actual sorprendió a los analistas, que esperaban nuevas medidas a partir del mes de abril, y provocó que el yen se revalorizara casi un 3% frente al dólar y que la bolsa japonesa se dejara un 4% en solo dos días. Una sorpresa que, en realidad, no debía haber sido tal  porque el refuerzo de las compras de activos apenas tres meses después de la introducción de los tipos de interés negativos reducía enormemente las probabilidades de que se aprobara un nuevo paquete de medidas en abril. Los efectos de las políticas monetarias tardan varios meses en transmitirse a la economía real y es preferible evaluar las repercusiones de las medidas en curso antes de aumentar su intensidad.

No obstante, los datos económicos publicados en esas fechas no invitan al optimismo. La inflación excluyendo los productos frescos (el indicador favorito del banco central) volvió a caer con fuerza hasta territorio negativo en marzo y se situó en un  0,3% anual. El resto de índices de precios también descendió. Los miembros de la autoridad monetaria han revisado a la baja sus previsiones para los dos próximos años, pero estas siguen siendo muy optimistas a la vista de los datos reales observados. Las importantes negociaciones salariales de la primavera apuntan a una ralentización de las subidas de los sueldos este año. Además, la mayoría de los miembros del comité de política monetaria considera que los riesgos para sus previsiones están sesgados a la baja.

En nuestra opinión, el banco central debería anunciar nuevas medidas en su reunión de julio. Para entonces, las políticas en marcha habrán demostrado sus efectos y las nuevas previsiones de inflación y crecimiento deberían terminar por convencer de la necesidad de reforzar los estímulos a la economía. Cabe esperar un descenso del yen y un efecto beneficioso para la renta variable, pero no antes del verano.

Una renta variable que, si nos trasladamos a Europa, tiene como nota especialmente exótica el hecho de que los valores de pequeña y mediana capitalización batirán al índice FTSE 100 en caso de que el Reino Unido siga siendo miembro de la Unión Europea.

Después de cuatro años de crecimiento negativo de los beneficios y de peor comportamiento relativo frente a los valores de pequeña y mediana capitalización, el FTSE 100 se comportó mejor que la mayoría de índices de los países desarrollados y supera al FTSE 250 en más de un 4% desde comienzos de año. El índice ha destacado gracias a su importante exposición a los precios de las materias primas, que han subido con fuerza durante los cuatro primeros meses del año, y a la debilidad de la libra esterlina. Las empresas del FTSE 100 están, en efecto, muy poco expuestas a la economía interna, ya que obtienen apenas el 20% de sus ventas en el Reino Unido.

Pero creemos que, en los próximos meses, el índice de pequeña y mediana capitalización debería batir al índice de los grandes valores. En primer lugar, porque el movimiento alcista de los precios de las materias primas debería perder fuelle y nuestro escenario no contempla una fuerte mejoría de los beneficios en los sectores expuestos a ellas. En segundo lugar, porque si el Reino Unido se mantiene en el seno de la Unión Europea, se producirá una revalorización de la libra hasta niveles de 1,50-1,55 dólares. Además, los mercados evaluarán de nuevo la política monetaria del banco central inglés y eso sostendrá las alzas.

Desde el punto de vista de los valores de pequeña y mediana capitalización y en el supuesto de que se rechace la salida de la UE en el referéndum de junio, el consumo interno y la inversión, muy lastrados por las incertidumbres, deberían repuntar y posibilitar una reevaluación general de las acciones más sensibles al crecimiento interno. Los sectores preferentes serán servicios financieros, inmuebles, transporte y ocio. La fortaleza de la libra esterlina tendrá escasas repercusiones sobre las ventas y el efecto será incluso positivo para los inversores en moneda extranjera.

Esta entrada fue publicada en Análisis fundamental, Bancos centrales, Empresas, Estrategia, General, Macro, Renta variable, RV Reino Unido. Guarda el enlace permanente.

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