La incertidumbre política en España no está siendo determinante para el mercado

Por Raimundo Martín, director general de Mirabaud Asset Management en España, Portugal y Latinoamérica

Qué duda cabe de que estamos viviendo un periodo de gran volatilidad en la bolsa española, pero que también ha permitido encontrar compañías muy interesantes a precios muy atractivos en todos los sectores en los últimos meses. Empresas como Indra o Dia son un claro ejemplo de ello. O el caso de IAG, un valor que se ha comportado excepcionalmente bien contra el mercado, con gran constancia y sin flujo de salida. En el sector financiero, el comportamiento de Bankinter está siendo excepcional, todo un paradigma, y el único español, junto a Bankia, que ha mostrado crecimientos de doble dígito en 2015. Y no son los únicos valores destacables: Cie Automotive muestra un gran potencial (aún más con la salida a bolsa de Dominion) y es otro ejemplo de interés, al igual que lo son Merlin Properties, Telefónica o Repsol, todos ellos con gran peso en la cartera de Mirabaud Equities Spain, nuestro fondo de renta variable española.

Que la volatilidad va a continuar es seguro si bien, pese a los pronósticos de muchos, la situación de incertidumbre política por el que está atravesando España no está siendo determinante para el comportamiento de los mercados. Bajo nuestra experiencia, está afectando más de cara al exterior. El inversor extranjero puede ser un poco más reticente y se muestra más preocupado en este sentido pero la economía y el consumo real en España tienen mucho tirón. Definitivamente, la incertidumbre política no es deseable para la inversión -ni para ningún otro ámbito-, pero no está afectando de forma traumática a la economía real.

En este contexto de incertidumbre política genera más signos de alarma el posible Brexit, que está teniendo una incidencia importante sobre la inversión en el Reino Unido. Aunque la experiencia nos ha demostrado que las encuestas no son siempre fiables, la tendencia actual en lo que respecta al resultado del referéndum sobre la salida o no de la Unión Europea indica que los partidarios de la salida están ganando terreno. El número de indecisos sigue siendo muy elevado y el resultado dependerá de estos votos.

Aunque las consecuencias de una salida son difíciles de evaluar, actualmente se puede apreciar un efecto sobre la economía británica en el ámbito de la inversión privada. Las últimas previsiones de la oficina presupuestaria del gobierno reflejan un descenso de la inversión de 8,3 puntos porcentuales en el periodo 2016-2020. En el consumo, la revisión a la baja en ese periodo es de 0,5 puntos porcentuales. Recordemos que el consumo representa el 65 por ciento del PIB del Reino Unido. Estas previsiones se basan en la hipótesis de que el Reino Unido siga siendo miembro de la UE. En el mercado de tipos de cambio, la depreciación del 15% de la libra esterlina debería continuar. Esta moneda perdió casi un 30% de su valor durante la última crisis financiera y cuando salió del mecanismo europeo de tipos de cambio en 1992.

Por último, el riesgo más importante de un Brexit afectaría al conjunto de la zona euro ya que  abriría la puerta a otros países europeos. En un momento en el que la situación de la deuda griega todavía no se ha solucionado, un resultado positivo en la votación avivaría en los mercados los riesgos de ruptura de la zona euro y aumentaría las primas de riesgo de los países periféricos.

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