En renta variable española hay que ser eficiente, operativa y financieramente

Por Raimundo Martín, director general de Mirabaud Asset Management en España, Portugal y Latinoamérica

Las continuadas medidas del BCE deberían impulsar el crédito, el consumo privado y la inversión para lograr el objetivo de llevar la inflación a niveles cercanos pero por debajo del 2%.  Su influencia sobre el mercado financiero, como siempre, es doble: por un lado, da niveles bajos de tipos que actúan como soporte de las valoraciones de los activos financieros. De otro, el aumento del flujo de crédito impactará de forma positiva en la actividad económica y, por lo tanto, en la visibilidad de la parte alta de las cuentas de resultados.

En este nuevo contexto, el análisis de los gestores de Mirabaud Equities Spain, nuestro fondo de renta variable española, sigue siendo positivo respecto a su evolución en 2016, principalmente invirtiendo en compañías eficientes desde un punto operativo y financiero, capaces de apalancarse en los crecimientos de la parte alta de la cuenta de resultados. Tras la entrada a niveles de valoración tremendamente atractivos, las caídas vistas desde el mes de diciembre nos permiten mantener posiciones en compañías de calidad como Bankinter, Acerinox o CIE Automotive, entre otras, a precios muy atractivos.

En líneas generales, entrando ya en un análisis global, las últimas semanas han traído un entorno bastante positivo: el índice de la bolsa europea subió con fuerza desde mediados de febrero tras haber perdido cerca del 6 % durante la primera quincena. El mercado de bonos se anotó ganancias importantes.

En el entorno de los países emergentes, la salud de la economía china y la cotización del yuan siguen siendo los riesgos principales a corto plazo. Aunque las salidas de capitales siguen siendo importantes (sobre todo por la vía de sobrefacturación de las importaciones para sortear los controles sobre los capitales), el banco central chino ha reaccionado recortando el coeficiente de reservas mínimas que deben mantener los bancos comerciales.

Esta medida permitirá aumentar la liquidez en el mercado interbancario para sostener el crecimiento del crédito. No obstante, el ingente endeudamiento de las empresas seguirá siendo un problema importante a más largo plazo. Por su parte, la apertura del mercado de bonos a los inversores institucionales atraerá capitales.

Por otra parte, no debemos dejar de tener en cuenta que, a escala macro, el mercado subestima la inflación en Estados Unidos, que ha subido hasta el 1,7% excluyendo el precio de la energía. Después de pasar más de un año en cotas inferiores al 1%, la inflación del PCE – indicador preferido de la Reserva Federal- repuntó en enero hasta el 1,3% en tasa interanual. La variante que excluye los precios de la energía se ha acercado al objetivo del banco central, fijado en el 2%, tras situarse en el 1,7%. El nivel actual de la inflación subyacente ya supera las previsiones que publicó la Reserva Federal para finales del año en curso.

Con semejante escenario, y aunque el deterioro de las condiciones financieras en el mercado actúa como un primer endurecimiento de la política monetaria, cabría esperar dos o incluso tres subidas de tipos este año. Por consiguiente, esperamos una subida de los rendimientos de la deuda estadounidense cuando el discurso monetario de la Reserva Federal se endurezca y aprovecharemos un nivel más interesante para recomponer una posición en títulos del Tesoro a diez años.

En cuanto a renta variable se refiere, el rebote de los países emergentes será una oportunidad para recoger algunos beneficios. Las bolsas volvieron a vivir un mes difícil en febrero y la mayoría de los índices terminaron en números rojos. Uno de los pocos mercados que consiguieron ganancias fue el índice inglés FTSE 100, que se benefició del rebote de las empresas mineras y del sector de la energía.

Globalmente, mantenemos una posición neutral en los mercados de renta variable. Las políticas monetarias y los rendimientos negativos son favorables para esta clase de activos, pero el crecimiento de los beneficios sigue siendo débil y las revisiones a la baja continúan.

Esta entrada fue publicada en General. Guarda el enlace permanente.

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Il existe toutes les niveaux d’interprétation qui vont du plus équipement au très symbolique.Il existe énormement de méthodes de tirage des cartes divinatoires. Un type de tirage couramment rencontré est le tirage en croix qui s’effectue souvent avec les arcanes majeurs. Il comporte quatre cartes disposées en croix qui offrent la possiblité de peser le pour, le contre et d’apporter une réponse au consultant. Dans le tirage en croix la carte de gauche représente le consultant, la carte de droite ce qui lui fait face ( circonstances ou humains extérieurs ), la carte située en haut identifie le souci à solutionner, la carte en bas donne le résultat; une cinquième carte dite de synthèse peut être tirée en additionnant les valeurs numériques des quatre cartes par la ‘ code promo xxx théosophique ‘. ( Ex : 42. 4 2=6 ). dans le cas où jamais la synthèse se trouve être une carte qui se trouve déjà dans le tirage, on extrait la valeur numérique de cette carte et on refait la code promo théosophique.Une autre méthode est le tirage en ligne, qui ne met en jeu que les arcanes majeurs. Le tirage est alors constitué de 3 à cinq cartes déposées, chaque carte près de représenter soit le passé, le futur, le là, la personne, ses motivations ou bien encore la solution à celles-ci.D’autres types de tirages ayant davantage de cartes permettent de bénéficier une vision globale de l’avenir du consultant, tel le tirage des demeures de l’astrologie ( 12 cartes, une pour chaque maison ) ou le tirage anniversaire ( une carte par mois ).Il existe notamment une pratique qui utilise dix cartes et qui nécessite les arcanes mineurs et majeurs : les cinq premières cartes sont disposées en croix grecque avec la seconde carte posée sur la 1ère, décalée à 90°. Les 5 autres cartes sont disposées web verticale à droite de la croix du bas vers le haut. La 1ère carte, au centre de la croix, représente le consultant lui-même et l’état dans lequel il se trouve. La 2nd carte, sur le consultant, est le ennui auquel le consultant est confrontéLa 3ème carte, à gauche, est le passé du consultant. La 4ème carte, à droite, est la future situation du consultant. La cinquième carte, au-dessus, représente l’atmosphère adéquat. La sixième carte, en dessous, fait les motivations profondes et insoupçonnées du consultant. La septième carte, en bas à droite est la personne ; c’est une personne qui interfère dans la vie du consultant, cela peut être quelqu’un dont il a déjà été question dans les six premières cartes, quelqu’un d’inconnu ou pas. La huitième carte symbolise le regard des autres sur notre action et ce qu’ils vont en penser. La neuvième carte représente les peurs du consultant qui l’empêchent d’arriver à son épanouissement. 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Laurent Parcelier, Guilio et le drôle de monde 1 et 2Alejandro Jodorowsky, TravauxTom Robbins, Comme la grenouille sur son nénupharAlfred Boudry, dans Le Sang de Robespierre, où la Révolution made in france est ré-interprétée à l’aide d’un Tarot de MarseilleHirohiko Araki, Jojo’s Bizarre adventure : Stardust Crusaders. Certains protagonistes possèdent des ‘ stands ‘ ( pouvoirs ) nommés d’après les cartes du tarot divinatoireShin Megami Tensei Persona, Jeu vidéo où le tarot divinatoire a une place centraleLe roman de Milorad Pavić, ‘ Dernier situation amoureuse à Constantinople ‘ ( 1000 – 1ère éd. 1994 ) consiste en un jeu intertextuel à base de lames de tarot. Vision d’Escaflowne, saga animée japonaise de 26 épisodes correspondant chaque personne à une arcane du jeu de tarot de l’héroïne Hitomi KanzakiLa Storia Della Arcana Famiglia, série animée japonaise de 12 épisodes ou quelques protagonistes peuvent être des arcanes majeures avec des capacitées qui leur sont associés.

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