¿Es enero un mes decisivo para la bolsa?

Por Albert Parés, gestor del fondo Annual Cycles Strategies, de Gesiuris

Empezamos este 2016 con un enero que ha dejado unas pérdidas del 7 por ciento en el Ibex35 y del 5 por ciento en el S&P 500 y leemos a menudo que un mal inicio del ejercicio puede influir de manera clara en el resultado de final de año.

Es lógico. Si un índice que ha ganado de media alrededor del 8 por ciento anual empieza perdiendo un 6 por ciento, difícilmente a va cerrar un gran año si el resto del año se comporta de forma normal por lo que seguramente cerrará el año con un rendimiento discreto.

No obstante, creemos que lo realmente importante no es como ha influido enero en el conjunto global del año, si no ver si el comportamiento del primer mes del año ha llegado a tener alguna influencia en el resto de meses del ejercicio. Poco podemos hacer sobre el mes de enero pero hemos de tomar decisiones sobre nuestra política de inversión de cara a febrero y al resto del año.

Vamos a analizar los datos del S&P 500, porque es un índice diversificado y correlacionado con el resto de bolsas mundiales y del cual se tienen muchos datos fácilmente comprobables. Para tener un buen rango de datos, vamos a observar los últimos 26 años desde comienzos de la década de los 90 hasta el año 2015.

En este periodo, el mes de enero ha acabado en negativo en 11 ocasiones mientras que en 15 ha registrado un comportamiento positivo. La media del rendimiento durante este mes ha sido un pobre 0,08 por ciento. Por tanto ya vemos que no es un mes muy alcista… y si añadimos este año, el rendimiento medio pasa, incluso, a ser negativo.

En cambio, el periodo que abarca desde el cierre del 31 de enero al 31 de diciembre, el bagaje general solo ha dado un resultado negativo en 6 ocasiones –en un 77 por ciento de las ocasiones ha sido positivo el resultado–.

Parece, por ende, un periodo más alcista que el mes de enero. De esas 6 ocasiones, 3 habían registrado previamente un enero negativo y 3 uno positivo. Es decir, partiendo de un enero negativo, ha habido 8 años de 11 en los que el resto del año ha finalizado en positivo (un 72 por ciento). Por contra, partiendo de un enero positivo, el resto del ejercicio ha acabado en positivo en 12 de las 15 ocasiones que se ha producido (un 80 por ciento).

Creemos que estadísticamente estos datos no son concluyentes para asegurar que un enero negativo indica que el resto del año vaya a ser negativo. Por ello, esperamos que este próximo 2016 este entre el porcentaje de años predominante y que implicaría tener un comportamiento positivo.

Y es que, si profundizamos más en los datos, podríamos comprobar el rendimiento medio del resto del año en los años que enero ha sido positivo y en los que ha sido negativo. Los años positivos, de los 15 que han tenido un rendimiento positivo en enero suman un rendimiento el resto del año del 167 por ciento que representaría una media del 11 por ciento anual. Mientras que los 11 años con enero negativo la suma de los rendimientos del resto del año suma un total del 50 por ciento, que representaría una media 4,6 por ciento.Una diferencia importante.

No obstante, hay años puntuales que pueden afectar esta media de manera sustancial. Por ejemplo el año 1998 con un enero con un rendimiento positivo del 1 por ciento el resto del año rindió un 25,4 por ciento, si ese año en enero su rendimiento hubiera sido del -1 por ciento habría influido bastante a la media.

Así pues, sí que tenemos dos datos que nos pueden hacer tener cierta predilección por un inicio de año en positivo, a parte del soporte moral que supone para los inversores tener sus cuentas en verde al inicio de año y que en cierta manera influye en sus decisiones futuras. Sin embargo, tampoco podemos afirmar de forma categórica que un enero negativo implique que vamos a tener un resto del año negativo.


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