India, una doble oportunidad

Por Gemma Hurtado, gestora principal de ‘Mirabaud Equities Spain’

En el actual entorno de crecimiento “moderado” a nivel global, pocos son los países con expectativas de crecimiento para 2016 superiores a la del año que hemos cerrado y con tasas de dígito simple alto. Dentro de esa lista corta está India. Según el FMI en su informe de octubre de 2015, el PIB estimado para 2016 es del 7,5 por ciento frente al 7,3 por ciento que se prevé para 2015. A pesar de ello, los retos que afronta el país no son pocos, ni pequeños.

La principal amenaza a la sostenibilidad de esta próspera senda de crecimiento ha sido y sigue siendo el enorme déficit en infraestructuras que padece el país. En el sector eléctrico, el reto es dual tanto por la calidad de la red como por el mix de producción dónde el principal componente sigue siendo el carbón, que representaba el 59 por ciento de la capacidad instalada a cierre de 2013. En el apartado de transporte basta decir que el 50 por ciento del país sigue sin accesos por carretera (al menos que esté pavimentada) y que la red ferroviaria, la cuarta mayor a nivel mundial, está colapsada y es totalmente insuficiente para la creciente demanda del transporte de mercancías.

Los gobernantes no han vivido ajenos a estas circunstancias; muy al contrario, han mostrado su interés y empuje hacia el cambio. En los últimos años se han puesto en marcha la “Power Reform” para el sector eléctrico, con la que se pretende impulsar las energías eólica, solar y nuclear, y los programas “National Highway Development” y “Vision 2020” para la red de carreteras y tren, respectivamente, con una inversión cercana al billón de dólares.

Ante este escenario, la oportunidad que ofrece el país es doble y por su tamaño es al menos digna de ser analizada. En primer lugar, para empresas de ingeniería y construcción que desarrollen su actividad dentro de estos sectores que por su calidad de producto y buena ejecución sean capaces de hacerse un hueco en este ingente y exponencialmente creciente mercado. En segundo lugar, para compañías que han frenado durante años sus planes de entrada al país por la complejidad del apartado logístico, por ejemplo, a pesar de que los factores que inciden sobre el crecimiento de sus ventas (por tamaño y/o de la población, por la baja penetración del producto, etc.) están muy presentes.

¿Cuál podría ser el principal cuello de botella para que esta oportunidad cristalice? La lentitud con que llega la inversión pública y, sobre todo, la privada, y a la que se suma que la inversión extranjera, hasta el momento, se ha visto frenada por rígidas estructuras administrativas y por una falta de seguridad jurídica a pesar de que la puerta de entrada fue abierta a inicios de los noventa. Estas circunstancias, en mi opinión, podrían cambiar bajo el recién estrenado gobierno de Narenda Modi. La intención de apertura al exterior ha sido evidente desde el inicio de su mandato, con más de veinte viajes a países extranjeros en su escaso año y medio de legislatura. El “Efecto Modi” podría acelerar este pesado proceso.

Con todo, y aunque el camino hacia el cambio pueda ser lento, no se han dejado de dar pasos hacia él. Los más de 60.000 millones de dólares invertidos desde inicios de 2012 en más de 200 proyectos de carreteras y energía son una clara muestra de ello. India sigue siendo una oportunidad.

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