Como un pequeño gorrión

Por Gema Hurtado, gestora principal de Mirabaud Equities Spain

A estas alturas del año es momento de ponerse a trabajar en las previsiones para 2016. La cadencia del análisis podría ser la siguiente: política monetaria, tipos de interés, estimaciones de crecimiento e inflación, beneficios empresariales y valoración de mercado.

En términos de política monetaria, con el BCE en modo expansivo con niveles de tipos bajos durante “un periodo prolongado de tiempo”, sazonado con una ampliación del tamaño del programa de compra de activos (QE), y coincidiendo con el inicio de la fase restrictiva de la Fed subiendo tipos, la matemática financiera empujará los flujos del mercado americano hacia el viejo continente con seguridad.

Según estimaciones del FMI a octubre de 2015, el crecimiento global para 2016 estará alrededor del 3,6%, superando el 3,1% que se espera para el presente año. Se prevé que la zona del euro crezca a razón de un 1,6%, algo por encima del 1,5% para este año. Mientras que para España se estima un crecimiento del 2,5%, casi un punto porcentual por encima de del agregado de países vecinos.

Es importante destacar que estas estimaciones asumen que los tipos de cambio se mantengan constantes con respecto a los niveles de julio-agosto de 2015. Sin embargo, cabe esperar que el dólar se fortalezca contra el euro fruto de la divergencia de las políticas monetarias, lo que debería favorecer las exportaciones en la eurozona. El riesgo de estas estimaciones está, pues, sesgado al alza.

Respecto a la inflación en la eurozona, se espera que a finales de 2016 se sitúe en niveles del 1,6% gracias al soporte de la política monetaria, un euro débil y una ligera recuperación en el precio de las materias primas. Con todo, nos alejaríamos del fantasma de la deflación.

Si nos centramos en el mundo empresarial, tras unos años de entorno económico muy complejo, las compañías españolas han convertido la palabra eficiencia en un credo de fe, elevando el apalancamiento operativo y financiero a su máxima expresión. En consecuencia con crecimientos de PIB del 2,5% y una inflación en terreno seguro y positivo, el crecimiento de los beneficios empresariales será, como mínimo, de dígito simple alto.

Todas las condiciones parecen, pues, favorables para que 2016 sea un buen año para los mercados de renta variable, en particular los europeos, y con España destacando frente al resto. Pero, a todo conjunto de previsiones hay que añadirle un porcentaje de incertidumbre por aquello que no se espera, que con frecuencia es la clave del año.

Les confieso que yo suelo mirar una foto que tengo siempre en mi escritorio. Es una imagen tan simple como gráfica: un pequeño gorrión sobre una rama mirando al frente, tranquilo y confiando, ajeno a que justo a su espalda una serpiente con la boca abierta y movimiento veloz está a punto de engullirlo. ¿Exagerado? Lehman, estallido de la crisis de deuda soberana en Grecia, contagio y rescates de países de la eurozona, la caída del inmobiliario español…

No cabe duda de que un análisis profundo y detallado del entorno económico nos ayudará a tomar las decisiones de inversión acertadas, pero seguir vigilantes ante lo imprevisto nos permitirá reaccionar con racionalidad, adaptándonos con rapidez al nuevo escenario y aprovechando las oportunidades de inversión que de él pudieran surgir. No olvidemos que todos somos como un pequeño gorrión.

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