“Monetariamente” correcto

Por Gema Hurtado, gestora principal de Mirabaud Equities Spain

Las ataduras formales suelen ser, en mi opinión, un gran impedimento en la búsqueda de la eficiencia, siendo la independencia un bien muy escaso. Durante los últimos -y tan complejos- 6 años, el Banco Central Europeo ha tomado decisiones controvertidas, discutidas y criticadas, con el fin de cumplir su mandato y garantizar la estabilidad de precios, actuando siempre con independencia, tal y como su presidente, Mario Draghi, se ha ocupado de repetirnos en tantas ocasiones.

Hagamos un breve repaso de los tres principales bloques en la toma de decisiones, atendiendo sólo a aquellos instrumentos que, a fecha de hoy, aún están activos:

Instrumentos de política monetaria estándar

1.Open Market Operations (Operaciones abiertas de mercado). Su principal objetivo es proveer de financiación al sistema bancario europeo a través del descuento de activos financieros que posean en su balance. Los dos tipos principales son las MRO (Main Refinancing Operations), operaciones en base y duración semanal, y las LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operations) regulares, en base mensual y plazo de 3 meses.

2. Standing Facilities (Facilidades permanentes), cuyo objetivo principal es ajustar el flujo de liquidez del sistema bancario con un instrumento para la toma crédito (proveer liquidez) y otro para el depósito (reducir liquidez) con vencimiento, ambos, a 1 día, ajustando la oferta y la demanda de cada uno con el tipo de referencia y, en consecuencia, modelando el flujo de la liquidez.

3. Minimum Reserve Requirements (Ratio mínimo de reserva) cuyo objetivo principal es lograr la estabilidad de los tipos de interés y ajustar la liquidez con el fin de controlar la expansión monetaria mediante la modificación del tipo de referencia.

Medidas no estándar (Non-standard measures)

En el año 2009, en plena crisis financiera y con un sistema bancario bloqueado, la insuficiencia de las medidas clásicas expuestas en el apartado anterior se hizo evidente.  Con el fin de preservar la estabilidad de los precios y conseguir el buen funcionamiento del mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria que se estaba ejecutando, el BCE introdujo nuevas medidas no estándar en cuanto a su “naturaleza, cobertura y magnitud”:

1.LTRO, operaciones abiertas de mercado pero en base no regular y de mayor duración, desde los 3-6 meses hasta los 3-4 años. Un caso particular son las TLTRO (Jul 14, Targeted LTRO, i.e. condicionadas), cuyo importe está condicionado al crecimiento neto de los libros de crédito de cada una de la entidades en los segmentos de empresas no-financieras y hogares (excluyendo el segmento hipotecario). En base trimestral desde sep-14 hasta sep-16.

2.Asset Pruchase Programs (Programa de compra de activos en mercado secundario, QE), cuyo objetivo es evitar periodos prolongados de baja inflación inyectando liquidez en el sistema bancario con el fin de aumentar el flujo de crédito hacia la economía real ayudando al buen funcionamiento del mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria.

Tres programas en total que se diferencian por la naturaleza del subyacente: Covered Bond Purchased Program 3 (oct-14, bonos con cobertura de gobierno), Asset-Back Securities Purchase Program (nov-14, instrumentos de deuda con colateral) y Public Sector Purchase Program (mar-15, bonos de gobierno, agencias, organismos internacionales). Se ejecuta en base mensual por un importe de 60.000 millones de euros y está previsto mantenerlo activo hasta el tercer trimestre de 2016 (aunque podría ampliarse el plazo “si fuera necesario”). A cierre de julio 2015 el importe total inyectado era de 414.000 millones de euros

3.Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA o asistencia a la liquidez de emergencia), con el fin de proveer de crédito a entidades financieras solventes que puedan afrontar por un periodo temporal problemas de liquidez.

Unión bancaria

El 4 de noviembre de 2014, el BCE asume de forma oficial la supervisión del sistema bancario europeo e inicia de forma efectiva el camino hacia la unión bancaria en la EU. Dos son los pilares de esta unión:

1.SSM (nov-14, Single Supervision Mechanism/Mecanismo de supervisión única), sistema de supervisión creado por el BCE en conjunción con los bancos centrales de los países participantes. Objetivo: regulación homogénea y estabilidad del sistema financiero dentro del área.

2.SRM (apr-14, Single Resolution Mechanism/Mecanismo único de resolución). Se crea con el fin de “desnacionalizar” los rescates bancarios, rompiendo así el estrecho vínculo entre riesgo bancario <-> riesgo país y alineando la toma de decisiones con el criterio regulador.

A todos aquellos que hayan conseguido sobrevivir a esta procesión de anglicismos y siglas, necesarios para llegar a este punto del artículo, me gustaría comentarles mi valoración: si la estabilidad de precios fuera un activo financiero, y su cotización la inflación, como sucede con el resto de activos, la cotización o precio de mercado estarían determinados por la oferta y la demanda.

No hay duda de que el BCE ha asegurado la oferta mediante todas las medidas adoptadas hasta ahora. ¿Qué sucede con la demanda? Debería llegar en forma de crecimiento del flujo de crédito y aumento de la masa monetaria, pero eso sólo es posible si la visibilidad económica es alta, dejando paso a la confianza del inversor. Esto último dependiendo de las reformas estructurales dentro de cada país de la Unión…

La buena ejecución, desde la independencia, de las políticas del BCE ha tejido una red de seguridad que nos ha protegido, y no duden de que sigue haciéndolo, de una caída que podría haber sido mortal, dando fortaleza a la divisa común, estabilidad del sistema financiero y oferta de liquidez casi ilimitada. Se podría decir, entonces, que la actuación del BCE ha sido eficiente y “monetariamente” correcta.

Esta entrada fue publicada en General. Guarda el enlace permanente.

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