¿Que podemos esperar del ultimo trimestre del año?

Por Albert Parés Hereu, Gestor del fondo Annualcycles Strategies de Gesiuris.

Este año hemos llegado al final de tercer trimestre con la mayoría de índices acumulando rentabilidades negativas. No podemos decir que sea una cosa habitual, pero no es, ni mucho menos, algo excepcional. Pese a ello, en el ultimo trimestre del año esperamos dejar atrás el sell in may and go away y entrar en el rally de final de año, que suele ser el trimestre más rentable del año.
Pero, ¿cómo se han comportado el S&P 500 y el Ibex 35 en los años que se ha dado una situación como la actual? En el gráfico se pueden ver los rendimientos medios registrados durante los últimos 20 años del ultimo trimestre respecto a la totalidad del ejercicio.
En ambos casos, durante el último trimestre, el rendimiento ha sido superior a la mitad de la rentabilidad acumulada en el conjunto del año. Es decir, en una cuarta parte del año conseguimos proporcionalmente muchas más ganancias. Por ello, es de los mejores momentos para estar invertido.
El S&P 500 ha llegado en negativo a octubre en siete ocasiones de los últimos 25 años. De esos siete casos que llegó a final del tercer trimestre en negativo, en cuatro se ha comportado en positivo en el ultimo trimestre del ejercicio.
Por su parte, durante los últimos 25 años, el índice estadounidense ha llegado en positivo al final del tercer trimestre en el 70 por ciento de los casos (17 de 25) y ha cerrando el año con un porcentaje de ejercicios positivos que alcanza el 79 por ciento (19 de 25) gracias al buen comportamiento del ultimo trimestre.
El caso del Ibex
Desde 1990, el Ibex 35 solo ha llegado en 13 ocasiones en positivo al cierre del tercer trimestre. Por tanto, podemos decir que este año entra dentro de la normalidad. Por contra, de los 11 años que el Ibex ha llegado en negativo, en 7 ha conseguido recuperar parte de lo perdido y cambiar de tendencia bajista a alcista en el último trimestre del ejercicio. Y es que, mientras que a final del tercer trimestre ha llegado en positivo en el 54 por ciento de las ocasiones, en la ultima parte del año, ha mejorado este porcentaje y ha cerrado el ejercicio con un porcentaje de años en positivo del 58 por ciento.
Por tanto, predomina el comportamiento positivo en los últimos tres meses del ejercicio en los años similares al actual en los que el Ibex ha cerrado el tercer trimestre en números rojos.
¿Qué hacer este año?
Las noticias no acompañan. China, Brasil, Grecia, casos como el de Volkswagen, dudas sobre la subida de los tipos de interés en EEUU…  Si bien es cierto que el contexto parece no acompañar, también lo es que el Ibex cerró el tercer trimestre en 9.559 puntos y, en mi opinión, ya ha descontado un escenario bastante negativo.
Como ya he dicho otras veces, me siento más cómodo con el Ibex en 9.500 enteros que con el selectivo español en 11.866 como estaba el pasado 13 de abril.
Por tanto, si disponede liquidez creo que es un buen momento para tomar posiciones, a través de acciones o de fondos. En cambio, si esta invertido y duda si mantener o no, vender antes del rally de final de año, casi nunca ha sido un buen negocio.
Estos datos son hasta cierre del año. No obstante, además de ser un trimestre muy interesante esta unido al inicio de año que también tiene un comportamiento tradicionalmente alcista.
Por ejemplo, el Ibex 35 en los últimos 20 años ha rendido entre final de año y el día 4 de enero un 1,29 por ciento. De hecho, en un 76 por ciento de los casos (19/25) ha conseguido ganancias en este periodo de tiempo.
En el S&P 500 los números son similares. Entre fin de año y el cierre del día 3 de enero, el rendimiento medio del índice en los últimos 20 años ha sido del 0,71 por ciento y el porcentaje de años en positivo del 64 por ciento (16/25).
Este año el primer día de mercado será el día 4, esperamos que sea alcista y a partir de entonces ya dejamos atrás uno de los mejores momentos del año para estar en renta variable.

Este año hemos llegado al final de tercer trimestre con la mayoría de índices acumulando rentabilidades negativas. No podemos decir que sea una cosa habitual, pero no es, ni mucho menos, algo excepcional. Pese a ello, en el ultimo trimestre del año esperamos dejar atrás el sell in may and go away y entrar en el rally de final de año, que suele ser el trimestre más rentable del año. Pero, ¿cómo se han comportado el S&P 500 y el Ibex 35 en los años que se ha dado una situación como la actual? En el gráfico se pueden ver los rendimientos medios registrados durante los últimos 20 años del ultimo trimestre respecto a la totalidad del ejercicio. En ambos casos, durante el último trimestre, el rendimiento ha sido superior a la mitad de la rentabilidad acumulada en el conjunto del año. Es decir, en una cuarta parte del año conseguimos proporcionalmente muchas más ganancias. Por ello, es de los mejores momentos para estar invertido. El S&P 500 ha llegado en negativo a octubre en siete ocasiones de los últimos 24 años. De esos siete casos que llegó a final del tercer trimestre en negativo, en cuatro se ha comportado en positivo en el ultimo trimestre del ejercicio.Por su parte, durante los últimos 24 años, el índice estadounidense ha llegado en positivo al final del tercer trimestre en el 70 por ciento de los casos (17 de 24) y ha cerrando el año con un porcentaje de ejercicios positivos que alcanza el 79 por ciento (19 de 24) gracias al buen comportamiento del ultimo trimestre.El caso del IbexDesde 1990, el Ibex 35 solo ha llegado en 13 ocasiones en positivo al cierre del tercer trimestre. Por tanto, podemos decir que este año entra dentro de la normalidad. Por contra, de los 11 años que el Ibex ha llegado en negativo, en 7 ha conseguido recuperar parte de lo perdido y cambiar de tendencia bajista a alcista en el último trimestre del ejercicio. Y es que, mientras que a final del tercer trimestre ha llegado en positivo en el 54 por ciento de las ocasiones, en la ultima parte del año, ha mejorado este porcentaje y ha cerrado el ejercicio con un porcentaje de años en positivo del 58 por ciento.Por tanto, predomina el comportamiento positivo en los últimos tres meses del ejercicio en los años similares al actual en los que el Ibex ha cerrado el tercer trimestre en números rojos.¿Qué hacer este año? Las noticias no acompañan. China, Brasil, Grecia, casos como el de Volkswagen, dudas sobre la subida de los tipos de interés en EEUU…  Si bien es cierto que el contexto parece no acompañar, también lo es que el Ibex cerró el tercer trimestre en 9.559 puntos y, en mi opinión, ya ha descontado un escenario bastante negativo.Como ya he dicho otras veces, me siento más cómodo con el Ibex en 9.500 enteros que con el selectivo español en 11.866 como estaba el pasado 13 de abril. Por tanto, si disponede liquidez creo que es un buen momento para tomar posiciones, a través de acciones o de fondos. En cambio, si esta invertido y duda si mantener o no, vender antes del rally de final de año, casi nunca ha sido un buen negocio.Estos datos son hasta cierre del año. No obstante, además de ser un trimestre muy interesante esta unido al inicio de año que también tiene un comportamiento tradicionalmente alcista.Por ejemplo, el Ibex 35 en los últimos 20 años ha rendido entre final de año y el día 4 de enero un 1,29 por ciento. De hecho, en un 76 por ciento de los casos (19/25) ha conseguido ganancias en este periodo de tiempo. En el S&P 500 los números son similares. Entre fin de año y el cierre del día 3 de enero, el rendimiento medio del índice en los últimos 20 años ha sido del 0,71 por ciento y el porcentaje de años en positivo del 64 por ciento (16/25). Este año el primer día de mercado será el día 4, esperamos que sea alcista y a partir de entonces ya dejamos atrás uno de los mejores momentos del año para estar en renta variable.

Esta entrada fue publicada en Análisis técnico, Estrategia, Renta variable, RV EEUU, RV España. Guarda el enlace permanente.

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