¿Estamos ante la oportunidad de comprar o es una trampa?

Por David Gonzalvo, miembro de CFA Society Spain y CEO de inveo.es

Tras las fuertes caídas en los mercados que se han producido desde mediados de junio (y particularmente en las últimas semanas) es muy probable que muchos inversores se hagan la siguiente pregunta: ¿estamos ante una oportunidad de comprar o ante lo que en argot técnico se conoce como value trap (valoración trampa)? Sin duda, la virulencia con la que algunos activos han bajado, sobre todo aquellos vinculados a países emergentes y materias primas, y los niveles a los que cotizan hacen especialmente pertinente esta pregunta.
Por ejemplo, como apuntaba recientemente JPMorgan Asset Management en un informe, las acciones de compañías de países emergentes como China, Brasil o Rusia, y representadas por el índice MSCI Emerging Markets, cotizaban a finales de agosto a 1,28 veces el valor neto contable de sus activos. Dicho ratio sólo se ha situado por debajo en dos ocasiones en los últimos 20 años: de manera puntual después del 11 de septiembre de 2001 y durante la crisis asiática de 1997-1998. Asumiendo que los países emergentes han mejorado ostensiblemente durante las últimas dos décadas, ¿no estamos verdaderamente ante una buena oportunidad de inversión? De hecho, el mismo informe apunta que en todos los casos en los que un inversor hubiera comprado el índice a estos niveles de valoración en los últimos 20 años, hubiera ganado dinero en los próximos 12 meses (en algunos casos con rentabilidades superiores al 50 por ciento en un año). Curiosamente, el mismo análisis realizado por Credit Suisse apuntaba que en los dos casos anteriores en los que el ratio se situó en 1,3 veces, el índice siguió bajando durante al menos dos meses, aunque la rentabilidad para el inversor fue igualmente positiva tras un año.
¿Qué elementos de valor existen para poder distinguir entre oportunidad de compra o valoración trampa? Lo primero, y más importante, es determinar en qué medida el activo en cuestión, ya sea una acción, un bono o una materia prima, mantienen su potencial de generar valor. En el caso de las acciones de países emergentes, ¿están justificadas caídas tan fuertes? ¿Hasta qué punto las circunstancias macro y microeconómicas ponen en entredicho el crecimiento futuro de dichos países? En el caso específico de China, es evidente que no se volverá a repetir una década con crecimientos anuales cercanos al 10 por ciento basados en la exportación de productos a bajo coste (ni probablemente del 7 por ciento como indican las cifras oficiales de los últimos años).
Pero no hay que olvidar a una cada vez mayor clase media china que está dispuesta a consumir y dispone de recursos para ello (como así lo confirmaba por ejemplo recientemente Tim Cook, consejero delegado de Apple, en referencia a las ventas de iPhone en julio y agosto). Otra variable a tener en cuenta es la cuestión psicológica. En mercados en los que el sentimiento se vuelve extremadamente negativo en poco tiempo (como ha sucedido con el mercado chino), suele ser señal de un exceso de ventas y por lo tanto de oportunidad de compra, con independencia de que el nivel de entrada no sea el mínimo absoluto (eso sólo lo consigue un inversor, de los muchos que operan en el mercado). Como dice el amigo Buffet: “Sé precavido cuando la mayoría es avariciosa y valiente cuando el resto son miedosos”.
Por último, deben considerarse también las particularidades de las inversiones “contrarias al mercado” y saber que no son aptas para todos los inversores. Analizar resultados de compañías, ratios de cotización o indicadores técnicos es algo relativamente sencillo (y objetivo). Pero valorar  el ‘sentimiento de mercado’ es complicado y subjetivo. ¿Hasta dónde se define un exceso de pesimismo? Y lo más importante, ¿cuándo y por qué puede cambiar dicho sentimiento? Dado que acertar con el punto de inflexión es prácticamente imposible, las inversiones value suelen ser a medio-largo plazo, y por lo tanto exigen resistencia financiera y paciencia hasta que el mercado eventualmente reconozca su exceso de pesimismo y ponga en precio el valor del activo. Aunque como dijo Keynes: “Los mercados pueden estar más tiempo equivocados del que tú puedes mantener tu solvencia”.
Esta entrada fue publicada en Análisis fundamental, Bancos centrales, Finanzas, General, Macro, Materias primas, Renta variable. Guarda el enlace permanente.

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