El futuro de los mercados: ¿Cómo se invertirá en 2030?

Por David Gonzalvo, miembro de CFA Society Spain y CEO de inveo.es

Hacer predicciones siempre es complicado, y más a largo plazo. ¿Qué perfiles de inversor existirán en 2030? ¿Cómo estará estructurada la industria del asesoramiento financiero y quiénes serán los dominadores del mercado? Sin duda son preguntas de difícil respuesta. Lo que parece claro es que, al igual que se han producido numerosos cambios en los mercados financieros en los últimos veinte años, es de esperar que el sector financiero siga en continua transformación en los próximos veinte.

Un reciente estudio titulado Investing in the future de la consultora KPMG apunta a varias posibles tendencias de futuro y las causas de las mismas. Factores macroeconómicos, tecnológicos, demográficos, sociales e incluso medioambientales van a seguir teniendo un gran impacto en el sector financiero. Por ejemplo el envejecimiento de la población mundial junto con unas tasas de natalidad cada vez más bajas en los países desarrollados continuarán aumentando el coste de las pensiones para los gobiernos, algo que previsiblemente no van a poder asumir en el futuro.

Ello conlleva a la creciente necesidad para los particulares de planificar antes y mejor la jubilación generando rentas privadas del ahorro. Por otro lado, el crecimiento de la población en los países en vías de desarrollo y, sobre todo, la incorporación de dicha población a la clase media seguirá exigiendo generar cada vez más y más recursos de un planeta ya de por sí sobreexplotado.

De hecho, según Naciones Unidas, se prevé que el desequilibrio entre oferta y demanda de agua a nivel global sea del 40 por ciento en 2030, y que hasta entonces sea necesario aumentar un 50 por ciento la producción de alimentos respecto a los niveles actuales (moraleja: compren acciones de empresas vinculadas a los sectores agrícola y del agua).

Pero sin duda es el factor tecnológico el que previsiblemente más influenciará en los próximos años sobre el sector financiero. Y si no pregúntenselo a los que hace unas décadas invertían en bolsa únicamente mediante teléfono o fax. Los desarrollos tecnológicos no sólo han permitido que hoy en día podamos invertir de forma rápida y directa en los mercados financieros, sino también que podamos acceder y analizar una cantidad de información infinitamente superior (lo cual no es evidente que sea mejor o que garantice el éxito).

Lo que sí es evidente es que dichos desarrollos tecnológicos han provocado el nacimiento de nuevos tipos de inversores como los hedge funds o los high-frequency traders que basan su estrategia de inversión precisamente en la capacidad de analizar información y operar de forma más rápida que el resto del mercado (de hecho en muchos casos la operativa de inversión la realiza un ordenador que lleva a cabo determinadas operaciones en nanosegundos).

La tecnología también ha cambiado el tipo de empresas en las que invertimos, y que hoy en día se dedican a sectores nuevos como la biotecnología, las redes sociales o las energía alternativas. ¿Cuáles serán los nuevos sectores del futuro?

Difícil de predecir teniendo en cuenta que las innovaciones tecnológicas cada vez tardan menos en expandirse (por ejemplo la radio tardó 38 años en alcanzar los 50 millones de usuarios, mientras que el juego Angry Birds sólo 35 días en llegar a la misma cifra).

Los factores mencionados no sólo van a cambiar en el futuro la manera de invertir y en qué invertimos, sino también a través de quién vamos a invertir o quién va ser nuestro asesor.
De hecho la crisis financiera de hace unos años y la creciente regulación ha provocado que el sector bancario haya perdido un cierto protagonismo frente a actores independientes como gestores de fondos, asesores independientes e incluso proveedores de programas de trading online.

En un mundo donde la tecnología y la información (big data) tienen cada vez más importancia, no es de extrañar que en un futuro no muy lejano entren en el sector gigantes tecnológicos como pueden ser Google o Apple. Lo que seguro que no cambiará en el año 2030 es la necesidad de generar confianza al cliente y de dar un buen servicio al inversor.

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