Por Enrique Díaz-Alvarez, director de riesgos de Ebury
La tendencia clave en los mercados de divisas en los últimos meses ha sido sin duda el ascenso imparable del dólar frente al euro, la libra y la práctica totalidad de las principales divisas del mundo. Este ascenso se ha visto propiciado por la divergencia entre la política monetaria de la Reserva Federal y la de los demás grandes bancos centrales del mundo, como son el Banco de Inglaterra y el BCE.
Mientras la Fed se apresta a dar fin a la política de tipos de interés a cero que ha imperado desde 2009, el Banco Central Europeo se ha embarcado en un nuevo programa de estímulo monetario que supondrá la compra de ingentes cantidades de bonos soberanos en el mercado secundario.
Por su parte, el Banco de Inglaterra, a medio camino entre ambas políticas monetarias, parece que va a retrasar su primer ajuste de tipos tras el voto unánime de los miembros del Comité de Política Monetaria por mantener los tipos de interés sin cambios en los últimos tres encuentros.
No obstante, la subida del dólar se ha detenido en el último mes, estabilizándose el par euro/dólar en el rango 1,05-1,10 y el cambio libra/dólar en el 1,46-1,50.
El principal motivo del ligero freno del dólar ha sido la publicación de cifras macroeconómicas relativamente decepcionantes en los EEUU, que parecen indicar que el crecimiento se ha ralentizado en el primer trimestre de 2015.
Esta aparente ralentización se dejó notar en el crítico dato de empleo correspondiente al mes de marzo, en el que el ritmo de creación de puestos de trabajo bajó de los 250.000 vistos en los últimos 6 meses en promedio hasta aproximadamente la mitad.
Esta moderación en la creación de empleo en el gigante norteamericano ha llevado a los mercados a retrasar sus expectativas respecto a la fecha exacta en que la Reserva Federal subirá tipos por primera vez, así como sobre el ritmo al que continuará la subida a lo largo de 2015 y 2016.
En ausencia de grandes cambios en la política del Banco Central Europeo, estas expectativas son el factor más crítico en la evolución del tipo de cambio euro/dólar y de ahí la estabilización reciente que ha conseguido el euro en los mercados de divisas.
El impacto que esto podría tener sobre la libra sería un debilitamiento más gradual respecto al dólar del previsto con anterioridad.
A la espera de la Fed
La última comunicación de la Fed, en su reunión del 19 de marzo, cuyas minutas fueron publicadas hace unos días, nos dan impresiones mixtas. Por una parte, está claro que varios miembros del comité de mercados ven factible una subida de tipos en junio, mucho antes de lo que esperan los mercados.
Por otra, el famoso “gráfico de los puntos”, donde cada miembro revela su expectativa de cuál será la evolución futura del nivel de tipos de interés, reveló que la Fed había revisado a la baja su expectativa sobre la frecuencia con que subiría los tipos.
Finalmente, de las minutas de la Fed se desprende que la opinión más general en el comité es que las decepciones macroeconómicas recientes en EEUU se deban en gran parte al invierno inusualmente duro que ha vivido el país, con lo que la economía volvería a presentar una evolución positiva en las semanas venideras.
En consecuencia, de acuerdo con la opinión mayoritaria de los miembros de la Fed, pensamos que la ralentización en Estados Unidos es un efecto temporal del clima, como ya ocurriera el año pasado, y esperamos que mejore sensiblemente el tono de las noticias económicas en abril y mayo.
Si esta previsión se cumple, como todo parece indicar, quedaría la puerta abierta a una subida de tipos en junio y a una continuada caída del euro frente al dólar, aunque a un ritmo mucho más suave que el que hemos visto desde otoño de 2014.
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