Reflexiones sobre Piketty

Por Antonio Hormigos, director de inversiones de Mirabaud

Pocas semanas atrás tuve oportunidad de asistir a la conferencia que ofreció en el Círculo de Bellas Artes de Madrid el economista francés Thomas Piketty.  El contenido de la ponencia giraba en torno a su libro “El Capital en el siglo XXI”, uno de los mayores éxitos editoriales del pasado año -más de dos millones de ejemplares vendidos-,  en el que se baraja una idea clave: en las próximas décadas tendremos retornos sobre el capital superiores al crecimiento económico, que será bajo. En esta situación, el capital y las rentas se irán concentrando paulatinamente en un número cada vez más reducido de personas, ampliando la desigualdad económica y esto sólo se puede evitar con medidas correctoras de origen político: impuestos y políticas sociales, incluyendo un importantísimo impulso a la educación. Una visión que, a mi parecer, debería tener enorme influencia en las políticas económicas que se diseñen en un futuro próximo.

El debate sobre la concentración de la riqueza que propugna Piketty está aquí para quedarse por una sencilla razón: nadie gana unas elecciones con el 1% de los votos. Ni siquiera con el 10% de los votos. En estos momentos entre el 60% y el 70% de la riqueza se concentra en el 10% de la población, tanto en Estados Unidos (ligeramente por encima del 70%) como en Europa (algo superior al 60%), y estos niveles  no han dejado de aumentar desde 1980. También el nivel de renta está concentrado. En Estados Unidos el primer 10% de la población recibe cerca del  50% de los ingresos totales. Esta cifra es del 35% en Europa. En ambos casos la progresión es al alza. Por encima de determinados niveles de concentración de ingresos y riqueza se entra en una zona de riesgo de explosión social de consecuencias impredecibles.

La visión de Piketty, aunque  él  se presenta como un analista desprovisto de ideología previa, parece encajar más con el ideario de los partidos  de izquierda mientras los políticos más conservadores optan por ignorarlo. De hecho, la misma tarde del día en que el experto dio su ponencia matutina en Madrid, Pedro Sánchez, Secretario General del PSOE y Pablo Iglesias, líder de Podemos, tuvieron sendos encuentros con él.  En Estados Unidos su imagen también parece estar más reconocida o asociada a la izquierda. Por el contrario, en Francia, por ejemplo, ese perfil se difumina. Recientemente rechazó la Legión de Honor, la mayor condecoración de Francia, enfrentándose con Hollande, a quien había apoyado en la campaña por la presidencia y de quien ahora tiene una pobre opinión por sus políticas económicas, o más bien por la falta de ellas.

Más allá de estas consideraciones ideológicas, creo que la conferencia del día 8 de enero fue un gran acontecimiento.  Piketty es un serio pensador de nuestro tiempo y merece la pena escuchar su mensaje.  En mi opinión, es ameno, abomina de los economistas que basan sus teorías en complejas construcciones matemáticas y reconoce que la economía es una ciencia inexacta. “El Capital en el siglo XXI”, dirigido a un público amplio, reserva  a  los lectores más expertos o interesados en profundizar un completo anexo estadístico, disponible por Internet, con todos los datos y tablas que durante años han recopilado el autor y su equipo.  Introduce, además, ejemplos y elementos sociales y literarios de gran interés.  Una obra absolutamente recomendable.

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