No vamos a reducir radicalmente porque el pasado siempre vuelve

Por Carlos Doblado, director de estrategia de Ágora

Seguramente usted se pregunta, y con razón, por qué no hemos alargado las coberturas que hicimos en su momento, por qué no hemos seguido reduciendo la exposición como en las correcciones de 2010 y 2011 cuando hemos constatado un deterioro creciente del mercado. Más aún, a qué se debe el haber aumentado una exposición que finalmente el mercado se ha encargado de volver a reducir por necesaria coherencia con el comportamiento de los precios.

Lo hemos explicado, pero no está de más seguir haciéndolo, como probablemente deberemos dedicar algún post próximamente a insistir en por qué desde 2009 nos negamos a trabajar el lado bajista de la tendencia. Volveremos a ello, pero no hoy…

Hoy vamos a centrarnos en el gráfico de la media de diez sesiones del ratio put-call. Queremos que se fije en los niveles extremos, los que están en la zona de 0,75 y 1,15; pues es más allá de esos niveles cuando el sentimiento se ha extremado y resulta probable que se acerque la hora de una corrección potencialmente relevante en tendencia o de un suelo potencial; según el lado que se extreme.

Queremos que se fije en la parte inferior para que constate que las correcciones de 2010 y 2011 se produjeron después de que el ratio alcanzase la zona 0,75. Y queremos que se fije en que la actual corrección bajista nunca pasó por esos niveles. Como no lo han hecho tampoco encuestas de sentimiento como las que publican Investors Intelligence, Hulbert Digest o Marke Vane; las más relevantes para el estudio “contrarian”. Encuestas que, como la media móvil que acompaña este Blogtrade, advirtieron de una corrección relevante en 2010 y en 2011; así como de los suelos potenciales de julio/setiembre de 2010 setiembre/octubre de 2011.

La actual corrección no ha pasado por un extremo de sentimiento, y el indicador ya está en zona de suelo potencial para los precios, al tiempo que parecen romperse soportes clave que piden algo más de corrección; todo sea dicho. Y queremos poner énfasis en ello porque siempre son las señales en tendencia de fondo las que ofrecen las mejores ventanas de trading. Y eso se corresponde con las señales alcistas, que han funcionado como relojes desde 2009.

Estamos en niveles de sentimiento que no marcan techos, sino suelos. Por tanto, si hay que caer aún mucho más, el mercado previamente deberá entrar previamente en un gran movimiento lateral que conduzca a encuestas y ratios de sentimiento a la euforia. Otra cosa es un flagrante desafío a la historia. Ésta puede no repetirse, obviamente, pero nosotros, incluso en estos tiempos de extrema irregularidad y confusión, seguimos viendo en ella un indispensable aliado para moverse por el mercado. Al fin y al cabo, esperamos seguir aquí dentro de 20 años, con lo que bien podemos admitir un error a cambio de muchos aciertos como los que concedió el pasado a estas herramientas. El futuro, estamos convencidos, también estará protagonizado por ellas.

A estas alturas, ya son demasiadas las veces que hemos escuchado, para lo bueno y para lo malo, que esta vez es diferente, que el pasado no sirve. Eso nos dijeron antes de que pinchase la burbuja internet, o la expansión crediticia. Pero al final, el pasado siempre vuelve.


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44 respuestas a No vamos a reducir radicalmente porque el pasado siempre vuelve

  1. Eimle dijo:

    …Sería otro Cisne Negro (mas) …pero ultimamente los Cisnes Negros vienen en bandadas y los Blancos ni se les ve ni se les espera…

  2. demo dijo:

    de todas formas mirando el gráfico, cabe la posibilidad de una caida adiccional si nos fijamos en los picos del suelo de 2011.

  3. Carlos Doblado dijo:

    Claro demo, algo de caída adicional cabe… ¿Pero alguien es capaz de localizar exactamente el máximo o mínimo del mercado sistemáticamente? Este tipo de cosas sirven para acomodar el sistema a un nivel de riesgo tolerable.

  4. Atc dijo:

    De esta salimos,yo también veo mas suelo que otra cosa,hoy el IBEX ha rebotado fuerte pero el descuento del diudendo de tekefonca no nis a dejado dejado verlo

  5. Atc dijo:

    Dividendo de telefonica

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