Escenario pensando en que la Fed no ponga fin a la fiesta

Por Carlos Doblado

Parece que fue ayer cuando, allá por los 7.500 puntos del Dow, proclamábamos el final de la tendencia bajista, el final de la “C de Barack” y un posible suelo generacional dentro de la tendencia alcista secular que observará con claridad en el primero de los gráficos (Y qué fáciles parecen las cosas cuando ya han pasado).

No volveremos a aquellos argumentos, que sobradamente tratamos desde Ecotrader y Blogságora en aquellos tiempos. Hoy nos interesa lo que tenemos por delante, y si ello tiene sentido dentro del escenario de fondo, con las ideas derivadas de la “C de Barack”.
Y lo cierto es que aunque esté costando seguirle la pista a éste mercado impresionante que viven al otro lado del charco por su endiablada velocidad -al menos a aquellos que nos preocupamos de preservar el patrimonio para que el próximo 2008 tampoco nos “mate”-, todo encaja perfectamente con lo que podría esperarse en el mejor de los mundos posibles en el corazón de los alcistas. Al menos para el medio plazo, pues queda rally por delante tanto si aún estamos dentro de un patrón de consolidación a largo plazo más amplio que nos devolverá a los tiempos duros más pronto que tarde, como si hemos iniciado un dorado ciclo bursátil al estilo del vivido tras el mercado bajista derivado del crack de 1929, o después de la larga consolidación de los años ´60 y ´70 (que aunque no lo parezca, la actual corrección lateral de largo plazo del Dow tiene suelo en los máximos de finales de 1.996; y eso supone un lateral de 15 años que podría ser más que suficiente finalmente).
Pero haya recaída o no dentro del ciclo de largo plazo, debate que no parece tener que abordarse en este momento, lo que sigue pareciendo razonable para trading en tendencia es que el mercado busque los máximos de 2007 e incluso que se permita el batirlos para que se alcancen los 15.500/16.000 puntos del Dow Jones Industrial antes de que se pueda poner fin al actual mercado alcista. Luego, ya veremos.

La continuidad del rally en el corto plazo, puesta en duda este pasado marzo, parece estarse despejando. Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Composite y S&P 500 han conseguido nuevos altos anuales confirmando patrones de cabeza y hombros invertido en continuidad alcista que parecen abrir un nuevo episodio dentro de la que sería la segunda fase del mercado alcista nacido en marzo 2009, segunda fase que vivimos desde mediados de 2010.

Sólo la Fed parece poder evitar un avance a corto plazo hacia los 13.000 puntos; nivel de resistencia creciente donde podríamos tener otro descanso para, a este ritmo, alcanzar los 15.500/16.000 puntos a finales de 2011. Si el terreno que ésta nos dibuja no perturba al mercado, y el Dow Jones Transportes apoya la ruptura de resistencia clave que vivimos ayer en los citados índices (acompañado por el Nasdaq 100, el S&P 100 y el Russell 2000, que aún no confirman), todo ello en cierre semanal, puede que lo mejor en 2011 sea cerrar los ojos y no amedrentarse ante las diferentes correcciones de intensidad que deberíamos tener dada la pendiente que mantiene el mercado, del modo en que lo hicimos en 2009 tras dar por finalizada la “C de Barack”.

Carlos Doblado es director de análisis de Bolságora.


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