Merck outlook misses view as dollar strengthens

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By Ransdell Pierson and Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) - MERCK (MRK.NY)& Co forecast 2009 earnings and revenue below Wall Street forecasts on Thursday, citing a harsh impact from the stronger dollar and continuing sluggish sales of several big medicines.

The drugmaker, whose shares fell 4.2 percent, projected flat or little 2009 growth for sales of three major products: asthma medicine Singulair, blood-pressure drug Cozaar, and cervical cancer vaccine Gardasil.

"It is possible that, as in the past, this is intentionally conservative initial guidance that will be revised upwards through the year but we cannot be certain," Sanford Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson said in a research note. "Between (foreign exchange rates) and several struggling franchises, the company does face significant headwinds in '09 and possibly beyond."

Merck Chief Financial Officer Peter Kellogg also told analysts on a conference call that he expects combined global sales of its Vytorin and Zetia cholesterol fighters, which it sells in partnership with Schering-Plough , to fall next year due to flagging U.S. demand.

On the positive side, Merck projected strong growth for its relatively new Januvia diabetes franchise, as well as for its HIV drug Isentress and shingles vaccine Zostavax. The company also expects to seek approval next year for two new medicines for migraines and acute heart failure.

The New Jersey-based drugmaker has seen sluggish demand for Singulair and its cholesterol drugs over safety or effectiveness worries, while osteoporosis drug Fosamax faces generic competition. Merck said in October it was slashing 7,200 positions, adding to cuts from an earlier restructuring.

Merck, a component of the Dow Jones industrial average, said on Thursday it expected 2009 earnings, excluding special items, of $3.15 to $3.30 per share. Analysts polled by Reuters Estimates were expecting $3.52, on average. The 2009 forecast excludes restructuring charges of $400 million to $600 million.

Merck said it expects global sales next year of $23.7 to $24.2 billion, little changed from expected 2008 revenue and shy of the $24.7 billion expected by analysts.

"We anticipate that top-line growth will be offset by the effects of a volatile global economy, fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets, as well as continued challenges for certain key products," Merck CEO Richard Clark said in a statement.

Merck said the strengthening dollar would crimp 2009 revenue by 3 percentage points, while having a negative 6 percent impact on earnings per share.

Some analysts had predicted Merck would issue a conservative 2009 forecast, given the unfavorable foreign currency swing.

Revenue of U.S. drugmakers in recent years has been greatly bolstered by a weak dollar, which increases the value of overseas sales when converted back into U.S. currency. But the stronger dollar may now turn currency trends against the companies.

Even so, Merck stuck to its earlier long-range forecast of compound earnings per share growth in the mid-to-high single digit range from 2005 to 2010, excluding special items. It also backed its 2008 forecast of $3.28 to $3.32 per share, excluding items.

Clark told the Reuters Health Summit last month that he sees profit growth for the company from 2010 to 2013 despite looming generic competition for Cozaar and Singulair. He also said Merck has the appetite to buy a big biotechnology company if the right deal comes along.

Merck shares fell $1.11 to $25.35 in premarket trading. Through Wednesday, shares had fallen some 54 percent this year.

(Reporting by Ransdell Pierson and Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn, Dave Zimmerman)

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