Asian economies stumble and U.S. faces retail test

Puntúa la noticia :

Nota de los usuarios: - (0votos)

• Bolsa, mercados y cotizaciones
• M. Continuo

Share

Tweet

elEconomista.es en Twitter

Follow @eleconomistaes

EcoTablet - ¡Gratis en App Store!

La plataforma más completa de información y servicios económicos para iPad.

• Suscribirse al boletín
• Imprimir
• Enviar
• Aumentar texto
• Reducir texto
• Haga doble click sobre una palabra para ver su signifcado
• Sudoku: Juega cada día a uno nuevo
• El tiempo: Consulta la previsión para tu ciudad

By Ralph Boulton and Lewis Krauskopf

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. shoppers awoke early for post-Thanksgiving sales on Friday in a key test of the country's ability to lead an economic recovery as sharp production declines in Asia gave fresh evidence of the global crisis.

Continued fighting in India's commercial capital, Mumbai, where Islamist militants launched attacks on Wednesday, and lingering fears of a coup in Thailand underlined the political risks facing emerging markets already grappling with economic turmoil. Indian commandos, appeared, however, to be flushing out the last of the militants.

In Europe, data showed the euro zone economy shrinking, inflation falling more quickly than expected and a steeper rise in unemployment than predicted -- all factors that raise pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates substantially next week.

The worst crisis in decades, which has humbled major world financial institutions, continued to encroach on the broader economy, driving output cutbacks, unemployment and bankruptcies.

The shake-up of European banks continued as the British government acquired a majority stake in Royal Bank of Scotland and Germany's Commerzbank accelerated its takeover of Dresdner Bank.

A major European builder, Austria's Strabag, announced it would cut its investments by more than half next year.

German industrial conglomerate ThyssenKrupp posted better than expected 2007-8 pretax profit, but gave no forecast for the coming year. The company said it could not rule out production shutdowns, shorter working weeks and layoffs in hard-hit steel, motor and construction sectors.

Chinese insurer Ping An provided a striking illustration of the global nature of the crisis when, according to a government source, it asked China's government to help seek compensation from Belgium over its losses in the European financial group Fortis after the group's nationalization.

U.S. stocks slipped in thin holiday trading. European shares were higher. Japan's Nikkei ended 1.7 percent higher.

"BLACK FRIDAY" SALES

Many will be looking this weekend to the United States, where the crisis began with a collapse in the U.S. mortgage market that saddled banks throughout the world with bad debt.

America's "Black Friday" sales on the day after the Thanksgiving holiday provide a strong gauge of consumer confidence, a major driver of the U.S. economy.

Shoppers rose before dawn as retailers from Wal-Mart to Macy's Inc and Best Buy Co Inc opened their doors early and offered steep discounts. But store traffic appeared about 25 percent lighter than a year ago, a top retail analyst said.

The run-up to Christmas brings up to 40 percent of annual sales for retailers, but experts predicted this year could be the worst sales season since the early 1990s as Americans, already hit by a housing slump, mounting job losses and credit crunch, cut spending on nearly everything but necessities.

"Consumer spending on gifts for the holiday season is going to be down considerably," said Eric Anderson, professor of marketing at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, in Illinois. "Black Friday will be the first indicator of how bad it's going to be."

Japan announced a fall of 3.1 percent in industrial output for October, more than expected, with a drop more than twice as big predicted for November. Household spending in the world's No. 2 economy fell 3.8 percent from a year earlier, also more than expected.

DEEPER, LONGER

The speed at which Japanese firms are slashing production, and consumers are scaling back their spending, surprised economists and suggested the economy was in for a deeper and longer recession than earlier thought.

"Production is falling much faster than we had expected. Companies are adjusting their production very quickly," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research. "The auto makers are the worst hit, but their turmoil is starting to spill over to other sectors, such as steel."

South Korea, Asia's fourth-biggest economy, followed Japan's pattern in reporting a sharp drop in factory output in October, leading some analysts to expect a full-blown recession rather than a slowdown projected by the authorities.

India, like China a major contributor to global economic growth in recent years, reported better than expected growth of 7.6 percent in the third quarter versus a year ago. But the economy lost momentum from the previous quarter's 7.9 percent and prospects appear clouded by the attacks in Mumbai.

Euro zone figures bore out the slowdown being felt in factories and shops throughout the continent.

The economy of the single currency area shrank quarter-on-quarter in April-June for the first time since measurements began in 1995. November inflation stood at an annual 2.1 percent, down from 3.2 percent in October. Unemployment rose faster than anticipated, to 7.7 percent in October from an upwardly revised 7.6 percent in September.

Sweden joined the growing number of nations officially in recession.

Reflecting the gloom affecting the motor industry from Detroit to Tokyo, a top executive at Honda Motor Co told Reuters Japan's No. 2 automaker faced a "Herculean task" meeting its already downgraded profit goals for this year.

(Reporting by Reuters bureaus worldwide; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Brian Moss)

PUBLICIDAD

- Recibe nuestros análisis Diarios sobre Divisas, Acciones y Opciones. ¡Apúntate ya! ¡Es GRATIS!

- Opere en más de 8.000 CFDs. Infórmese y obtenga su CFD Trading Guide

- Nuevos spreads en materias primas: Oro tan sólo 0,3 puntos, Plata 0,25, Petróleo 0,35

- Opera desde 2,95 € en tiempo real con Self Bank.