Goldman shares fall on fear of $2 billion fourth-quarter loss

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By Joseph A. Giannone

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc shares fell Tuesday on speculation the bank's fourth-quarter loss could be much larger than expected -- as much as $2 billion -- fueled by the plunging value of many Goldman investments.

In premarket trading, the shares slipped more than 4 percent to $63 from a Monday close at $65.76. They are down 69 percent this year.

Goldman is widely expected to post its first quarterly loss as a public company. The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed "industry insiders," reported on Tuesday the red ink could total $5 a share.

Results will reflect the falling value of a wide range of assets held by Goldman for its own accounts. The bank has long been the industry's most aggressive in deploying its own capital into everything from power plants and Japanese golf courses to ethanol producers and distressed debt.

Results will be dragged down by as much as $4 billion in write-downs, some analysts have told investors.

As a group, analysts turned bearish on Goldman at the end of October, with veteran industry watchers like UBS' Glenn Schorr and Merrill Lynch's Guy Moszkowski predicting small losses.

One month ago, the average Wall Street forecast was a profit of $2.34 a share; six months ago, it was a profit of more than $5.40 a share.

Currently, analysts on average expect Goldman to report a loss of $1.46 a share for the quarter, ended November 28, excluding one-time items, according to Reuters Estimates.

Individual forecasts range from a profit of 23 cents a share at Wachovia Securities, to a loss of $4.65 at Atlantic Equities, according to Reuters Estimates. Credit Suisse expects a loss of $4 per share.

(Editing by John Wallace)

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