Predicciones económicas: queda mucho por aprender

Por David Gonzalvo, CFA, miembro de CFA Spain y analista financiero

Como suele ser habitual todos los años por estas fechas, multitud de analistas de bancos y organismos varios realizan sus estimaciones financieras para el próximo año. ¿En qué precio cerrará el 2016 el S&P 500? ¿Cuál será el principal evento negativo que afecte a los mercados en los siguientes doce meses? ¿Qué pasará con los tipos de interés en EEUU? ¿Y con el crecimiento económico en China? ¿Cuál será la evolución del cruce euro/dólar?
Esta fiebre por estimar cualquier cuestión económica y financiera relevante para el siguiente año resulta, en mi opinión, un ejercicio necesario aunque poco provechoso. En general las estimaciones en el mundo financiero y empresarial son necesarias porque permiten establecer objetivos, diseñar estrategias y, a posteriori, valorar los resultados respecto a dichos objetivos. La principal pega que tienen es que muchas veces no se cumplen (especialmente si son a un año o más largo plazo). Y no porque las mismas carezcan de fundamento. Estoy convencido de que los analistas que realizan dichas estimaciones ponen un gran empeño y conocimiento en las mismas.
El gran problema es que dichos activos son intrínsecamente volátiles y están afectos a multitud de factores, muchos de los cuales son difíciles de predecir. Incluso en el caso de que se acertaran qué eventos se pueden producir queda por resolver cómo los mercados van a reaccionar ante ellos. Tomemos como ejemplo la reciente subida de tipos de la Reserva Federal, algo ya esperado por la gran mayoría del mercado. La lógica macroeconómica sugeriría que ante un acontecimiento así los mercados deberían bajar, ya que la financiación para las empresas se encarece y por lo tanto sus beneficios disminuyen. Pero la primera reacción ante la noticia fue una fuerte subida del mercado apoyada, según algunos analistas, por la “confirmación de que la economía americana está en expansión” (eso sí, al día siguiente el mercado corrigió lo ganado).
Un recurso para intentar resolver (o como mínimo mitigar) dicha incertidumbre es analizar cómo reaccionó el mercado en el pasado cuando la Fed anunció una subida de tipos. Pero como se suele decir en el argot financiero “rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras”, es decir que las circunstancias en las que dichas subidas de tipos se produjeron no son necesariamente las mismas que ahora, y por lo tanto mirar al pasado tampoco resuelve el enigma.
No obstante, antes de tirar la toalla y dejarnos llevar por el “paseo aleatorio” que parecen seguir los mercados (teoría desarrollada hace ya algunas décadas y que para muchos mantiene plena validez), es importante saber que sí existen técnicas y aptitudes que mejoran la fiabilidad de las estimaciones, no sólo en economía sino también en otros campos como la política o la ciencia. O al menos esa es la conclusión a la que ha llegado el autor Philip E. Tetlock después de realizar un experimento con más de 2.800 voluntarios en EEUU. Los resultados del mismo, plasmados en su libro Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, demuestran que gente con menos información pero aparentemente más sentido común, es capaz de mejorar en un 30 por ciento la fiabilidad de sus predicciones en comparación con supuestos expertos. Para ello no hace falta, según Tetlock, ser un genio matemático ni tener grandes conocimientos de un tema. Los superforecasters son gente común, eso sí con gran predisposición a escuchar, a ajustar continuamente sus estimaciones en base a la nueva información que reciben y a ser más humildes en sus predicciones. Por ejemplo se sienten más cómodos con predicciones a corto plazo que establezcan un rango de posibles resultados en base a probabilidades en lugar de un valor único (justo lo contrario de lo que realizan la mayoría de analistas).
En este sentido las finanzas tienen todavía mucho que aprender de otros campos. ¿Y si los analistas se limitaran a hacer predicciones a varios días vista como hacen los meteorólogos en lugar de predecir el futuro? ¿Y si se utilizaran técnicas de estudios de opinión, como en política, para estimar los movimientos futuros del mercado? Seguro que la fiabilidad de las estimaciones aumentaría y con ello la credibilidad de todo el sector.

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