¿Se puede ganar dinero invirtiendo en divisas?

Por David Gonzalvo, CFA, es miembro de CFA Society Spain y CEO de inveo.es.

“El año ha empezado movido”. Este es probablemente uno de los comentarios más utilizados entre los inversores y analistas estos días. La fuerte caída del petróleo, el enésimo capítulo de incertidumbre política y económica en Grecia o los vaivenes de la renta variable son algunos de los factores que más están marcando estos primeros compases de 2015. El mercado de divisas tampoco se ha quedado al margen, especialmente por la (sorprendente o no) decisión del Banco Central suizo (SNB) de dejar libre el tipo de cambio del franco suizo (CHF) con el euro (EUR) (llevaba desde septiembre de 2011 manteniendo un cambio mínimo del 1,2 EUR/CHF). El día 15 de enero, a los pocos minutos de anunciar la decisión, el franco suizo se revalorizó más de un 40 por ciento frente al euro, un movimiento poco común entre divisas tan importantes en tan poco espacio de tiempo. Movimientos parecidos, aunque de menor magnitud y en un periodo más largo, se han producido en los últimos meses en el cruce euro/dólar o entre la divisa norteamericana y monedas de países emergentes como Rusia y Brasil.  Ante tanta volatilidad no es de extrañar que más de un inversor se pregunte de qué manera se puede participar en el mercado de divisas y qué factores hay que analizar antes de tomar una decisión de inversión.

Un primer aspecto a tener en cuenta es que las divisas son el único activo financiero cuyo valor es relativo, no absoluto. Las acciones, los bonos, los futuros de materias primas, los tipos de interés, etc. tienen todos una cotización determinada cuyo precio no está referenciado (aunque sí relacionado) a ningún otro activo. En otras palabras, que suba uno no implica que el otro baje, o al menos no en la misma proporción. Pero en el mercado de forex, lo que sube una divisa lo baja la contraparte, lo cual introduce mayor dificultad a la hora de establecer un tipo de cambio objetivo. Además, los factores que intervienen en los movimientos de las divisas son de naturaleza diversa (políticos, macroeconómicos, financieros,…) y frecuentemente de difícil cuantificación. Por ejemplo, ¿en cuanto debería depreciarse el euro frente al dólar por el hecho que el Banco Central Europeo haya decidido emprender un programa de expansión cuantitativa? ¿qué valor negativo se le debería dar a una posible salida de Grecia del euro frente a la libra esterlina? ¿cómo afecta a la economía europea la caída del petróleo y qué parte de ese mayor crecimiento debería recoger la divisa de la Eurozona frente al yen japonés? En las acciones o en los bonos, éstos y otros factores más particulares de cada empresa pueden incorporarse a unas previsiones de flujos de caja cuyo valor descontado al presente nos puede dar una indicación de precio objetivo del activo. Pero no así en las divisas.

Otra particularidad del mercado de divisas es que a diferencia de otros activos el mercado de está dominado por actores cuya finalidad principal no es la especulación financiera (entendida como obtener una rentabilidad comprando un activo para venderlo más tarde a un precio superior) sino comercial o industrial. Aunque existen inversores financieros, la mayor parte de las transacciones que se realizan diariamente en el mercado de divisas están hechas por particulares o empresas para comprar o vender un producto o servicio. Predecir, por lo tanto, los volúmenes de compra o venta para este tipo de actividad no es sencillo, y menos a corto plazo.

Por si todas estas particularidades no fueran suficientes, los costes de comprar o vender divisas (especialmente por importes modestos) suelen ser más elevados que para otros activos como las acciones, lo cual hace menos atractiva una inversión especulativa

En conclusión, a pesar de que el mercado de divisas ofrece oportunidades de obtener buenas rentabilidades con un riesgo moderado, existen factores particulares que lo hacen desaconsejable para el inversor medio. No obstante, la exposición a divisa mediante la compra de activos que no coticen en euros (como las acciones o los bonos) es una buena manera de participar en dicho mercado siempre que se tenga en cuenta el riesgo añadido que ello supone. Y si no que se lo pregunten a los inversores suizos que el día 15 de enero tenían activos cotizados en euros en sus carteras. De un plumazo ¡perdieron un 30 por ciento!

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