China, un mercado lleno de ‘pros’ y ‘contras’

Por Agustina Barbaresi (En contra) y Ana Palomares (A favor), redactoras de Ecotrader.

Tiene la difícil tarea de convertirse en la locomotora de la economía mundial y de momento, va por buen camino. Según los datos de la OCDE el PIB de China fue en 2011 el 17% del total mundial, porcentaje equivalente al de la eurozona pero todavía inferior al 23% de Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, de cara a 2030 se espera que pase a suponer el 28%, mientras que los otros dos bloques habrán quedados reducidos al 12% y al 18% respectivamente, según  las previsiones de la OCDE para los próximos 50 años.

No obstante, hay quien cree que esa tarea es demasiado grande para un país como China, sobre todo a razón de la desaceleración a la que se enfrenta su economía, que también se ha visto afectada por la crisis de Occidente. De hecho, estas dudas son lo que nos lleva desde Ecotrader a no aumentar nuestra exposición al mercado chino – tenemos abierta una estrategia sobre el índice China Index a través del ETF de iShares desde abril de 2009- y eso a pesar de que no dudamos que a los emergentes les queda aún potencial, aunque se les resistan sus resistencias. La pregunta es ¿hacemos bien en no confiarnos  o pecamos de prudentes? Depende.

Economía

El país asiático cerró 2012 con un crecimiento del 7,8%. Una cifra que en Occidente hubiese sido excepcional pero que en China, un país acostumbrado a los crecimientos de dígitos, se ha quedado corta. De hecho, es la más baja de los últimos 13 años y esto avala la teoría de los que consideran que el gigante asiático está menguando.

Sin embargo, parece que los inversores prefieren interpretarlo como un simple ‘new normal’. Es decir, sí hay aterrizaje en su economía pero no es brusco (‘soft landing’). No en vano, en el último trimestre de 2012 se superaron las expectativas de crecimiento (se esperaba un aumento del PIB del 7,4% y fue del 7,9%) y parece que de momento es un dato suficientemente bueno como para que los inversores aún no estén dispuestos a hacer las maletas. Más ahora que todo indica que una de sus principales amenazas, la inflación, está controlada y muy por debajo del objetivo del Gobierno chino: el 4%. Quizá por ello, la última encuesta a gestores de Bank of America-Merrill Lynch muestra que el 67% de los gestores cree que la economía china se fortalecerá este año, la cifra más alta desde que se publica la encuesta.

A falta de que el país vaya deshaciéndose de su etiqueta de exportador para cambiarla por una de consumidor, su gran tarea pendiente, que ese optimismo caiga o no en saco roto, dependerá de su actividad industrial y exportadora. El último dato de producción industrial da la razón a los optimistas ya que fue del 10,3% interanual, la cifra más alta desde marzo de 2012. Pero mantenerla será complicado ya que además de la crisis, la economía ha de enfrentarse a la entrada en el mercado de nuevos, y mucho más baratos competidores.

Clima de negocios

En países como Vietnam, Indonesia, India o Bangladesh está mejorando a pasos agigantados la cualificación de los trabajadores, la calidad, la velocidad de fabricación. Y todo con unos costes laborales más competitivos. De hecho, es la escalada de los costes laborales chinos lo que está llevando a empresas a plantearse deslocalizar parte de su producción en China. Incluso algunas ya lo están haciendo.

Es el caso de Nike, que en los últimos años está dando una importancia creciente a otros países de Asia, como Vietnam. O de Adidas, que en 2008 anunció el cierre de su fábrica única en el país. Según un estudio publicado el pasado octubre por InterChina, consultora líder en asesoramiento a extranjeros con inversiones en el gigante asiático, muchas de las firmas que salen del país aluden al aumento de los costes como causa principal para justificar su traslado.

También hablan de otros factores como los fallos en los controles de calidad, e incluso en casos como los de las americanas Sleek Audio y Outdoor Greatroom, que han trasladado la producción de vuelta a EEUU, la necesidad de cercanía de las distintas fábricas o los altos costes de transporte.

En este sentido, tal como comentaba la gestora M&G en un reciente informe sobre emergentes, esta tendencia está haciendo que otros mercados como México, competidor directo de China, ganen atractivo sobre todo para las compañías estadounidenses.

Los costes laborales son sólo una de las consecuencias que hay que asumir cuando un país pasa de emergente a desarrollado. Otra consecuencia es que los inversores demandan flexibilidad regulatoria para poder establecerse en el país. Y eso en un país pseudocomunista como China es la gran tarea pendiente.

Según la ‘Encuesta sobre la Confianza de los Negocios Europeos en China 2012’, publicada por la Cámara de Comercio Europea en China, “hay un sentimiento de frustración creciente” por el retraso en las reformas que necesita el gigante asiático en este sentido. Según este organismo, existe la percepción por parte de los empresarios de que “el marco regulatorio va a seguir discriminando a los inversores extranjeros. Y muchas compañías creen que se han perdido oportunidades (de negocio) por esta causa”.

Mercado

Este férreo control de la economía del país se ve también en su mercado de valores, hasta el punto que éste está dividido entre acciones locales (A) y acciones internacionales que cotizan en la bolsa de Hong Kong (H). Sin embargo, se empiezan a dar pasos hacia un mayor aperturismo del mercado local chino. En este sentido, el responsable de la CRMV, el equivalente chino a la CNMV, anunció la semana pasada que tiene planes para aumentar en el futuro, de manera significativa, sus cuotas de inversión extranjera autorizada hasta multiplicarlas al menos por 10.  El año pasado los 209 operadores autorizados sólo controlaron el 2,56%.

En definitiva, China presenta sus pros y contras como destino de inversión y aunque el país asiático cuenta con gran atractivo y visos de mejora, no sobra decir que sigue siendo, pese al tamaño de su economía, un país emergente, con los riesgos que siempre conlleva esa etiqueta.

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