Se desploma el sentimiento alcista

Por Carlos Doblado, estratega jefe de Ágora Asesores Financieros EAFI

El año hubiera sido menos duro para nosotros de haber atendido más ciegamente a las señales de alerta que prestó el sentimiento; no habiendo escuchado nada más. Sorprende que pese a todo lo que hemos escrito en la primera parte del ejercicio en relación con el sentimiento alcista extremo del mercado, hayamos capeado tan mal la corrección bajista. Quizá esto acabe pareciéndose a 2004 como pensábamos, pero desde luego a nivel precios ha sido otra historia bien diferente. Deberíamos haberlo hecho mejor, si bien conviene saber que los precios nos han tendido todo tipo de trampas en cada momento de mercado desde los últimos días de 2010.

Ahora, es tarde para arrepentirse, y se trata de seguir jugando la partida conscientes de que esto es un bache en un camino del que siempre hablamos como algo que sólo ofrece consistencia cuando se tiene una visión de medio-largo plazo, aunque operemos en el corto-medio. Lamentablemente, esta sensibilidad es algo de lo que suele carecer el pequeño inversor; por lo que va dando saltos de una solución a otra, anhelando la completa fiabilidad, sin entender que ese es un objetivo inalcanzable.

En este momento, como explicábamos hoy en Ecotrader profusamente, se nos plantean dos escenarios. Uno de continuidad alcista, en forma de plana de Elliott a la que quedaría algo más de corrección aunque no necesariamente demasiado. Y otro de cambio de tendencia como el que también plantearon los precios en algún momento de la primera parte de 2010 y que fue finalmente negado por el mercado.

El sentimiento jugó un papel fundamental en la detección de suelo que hicimos a finales de verano el pasado año, pues como puede verse en el gráfico la encuesta de sentimiento de Investors Intelligence alcanzó la zona de cero e incluso se situó algo por debajo. En este momento, como también puede apreciarse en el chart, el sentimiento extremo se ha reducido para recaer desde la zona 40 que siempre esperamos y tuvimos justo en la traicionera señal alcista de finales de abril en forma de patrón de cabeza y hombros (hch) en continuidad alcista.

En el momento actual, sin pérdida de soportes clave en la tendencia de fondo, estamos ligerísimamente por encima del 10 por ciento en el diferencial entre advisors alcistas y bajistas. Habrá por tanto que vigilar muy mucho el tipo de niveles que tenemos cuando se alcance la zona de soporte clave de los 1.240 puntos del S&P 500. Si el sentimiento llega a la zona neutra, si alcistas y bajistas vuelven a equilibrarse o incluso son mayoría los bajistas, el escenario de plana de Elliott debería ser favorecido frente al de doble techo para cambio de tendencia si no estamos ante un nuevo 2008.

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