No conviene tirar la toalla

Por Carlos Doblado, director de análisis de Ágora Asesores

El problema de una metodología de inversión, de tener éxito con ella, pasa por el hecho de que solemos tomar su camino después de que hayamos observado
desde fuera sus buenas rachas
.

Es evidentemente que en tal caso, porque todo llega, las malas nos esperan. Y cuando llegue probablemente tendremos menos paciencia de la debida porque ya llegamos “quemados” de otras experiencias.

Acabaremos saltando probablemente a otra, y a otra, hasta acabar pensando que no hay camino, que la bolsa es un fiasco, pura suerte, cuando todo se debe a que quisimos estar siempre en el camino que funciona sin darnos cuenta de que a él solemos llegar cuando nos hemos percatado de que lo ha hecho. Juzgamos el sistema sin poner en su haber lo que nos demostró antesde probar con él.

Obviamente no todas las personas carecen de la sensatez necesaria para comprender esto y perseverar; pero los psicólogos clínicos ya han demostrado que generalmente no hacemos elecciones desde la sensatez, sino desde la sensación, por el placer y dolor que nos reportan.
Se ha demostrado, por ejemplo, que los inversores sienten el doble de dolor por una pérdida “x” que el que les produce una ganancia de la misma cuantía. De modo que sin echar honestamente los números pueden llegar a sentir, porque es una sensación, que aquello no funciona aunque estén ganando dinero.

Esto es lo que hace que ser un trader activo frecuentemente conduzca a la desazón. Al final, nuestro cerebro se siente más feliz cuantas menos decisiones toma porque tiende a juzgar con más dureza los fallos que a valorar los aciertos.

Este mercado, tras dieciséis años de gráficos, me parece el más difícil que
he trabajado. Puedo comprender por tanto su cansancio casi dos años de bolsa
lateral-bajista en Europa mientras tenemos ganancias en Wall Street que
quedan en nada si no se cubre la divisa; circunstancia que está generando
pérdidas innecesarias de tal forma que lo que se gana en Estados Unidos si
se hacen coberturas se pierde en Europa porque vivimos una muy peculiar
descorrelación (sinceramente, yo no había vivido nada igual, lo que tras
dieciséis años trabajando el mercado supone que vivimos una anomalía
histórica).

La rentabilidad que estamos obteniendo no justifica el nivel de trabajo que
nos está pidiendo, pero es que es así siempre en mercado. Cuando trabajas
poco es porque la tendencia hace todo el trabajo. Es entonces cuando ganas
mucho; lo que no es algo justificable bajo nuestra moral católica, que puede
llegar a sentirse culpable.

Cuando trabajas mucho, con una metodología de especulación en tendencia, es porque te estás equivocando frecuentemente, picas muchísima piedra para un fruto que es aparentemente insuficiente porque nos cuesta contextualizarlo en lo que ha sido un sistema de especulación a 5-10 años. Y sin embargo es un período que hay que pasar, porque el que no quiere bajar a la mina a picar piedra se entera de que la bolsa está subiendo después de que haya avanzado un mínimo del 15 por ciento, y frecuentemente más de un 20 ó 30. Y si no, que se lo digan a todos los que se cansaron de picar piedra en 2008 y se perdieron un 2009 en el que nadie creía a priori; volviendo al mercado prácticamente cuando empezó el lateral.

Esto es así, y operando técnicamente sólo hay recompensa para los que perseveran en un sistema aceptando lo malo del mismo como una parte inherente al juego, como algo sin lo cual no es posible obtener lo bueno salvo en caso de que uno sea de aquellos que tuvo siempre suerte en la vida.

Nosotros preferimos esperar rendimiento del trabajo que de la fortuna que en realidad intentamos combatir, pues el que se pone en sus manos puede topar con la buena pero frecuentemente se encuentra con la mala.

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5.440 Responses to No conviene tirar la toalla

  1. ATC says:

    Es complicado el tema bursatil y uno tiende a estar desazonado la mayor parte del tiempo,
    eso si ENGANCHA y de que manera, te ves en el barrio de toda la vida tomando una caña a las nueve de la noche preocupado por como cerrara Nueva Yor y te pregunats ¿esto es normal? pues si lo es , es una pasion como otra cualquiera, pero como las pasiones
    amarosas juveniles con mas fracasos que exitos,eso si cuando te sale algo REDONDO disfutas como un enano.
    Yo le daria un voto de confianza al mercado, un nuevo plan de INYECCION MONETARIA de la FED, que algun economista agudo logre desentrañar el TRUCO para rescatar a un pais ahora que no se puede devaluar la moneda,el emerger definitivo de los emergentes,la vida siempre se abre paso por ello yo soy mas alcista que bajista.

  2. anabel says:

    VALORANDO LOS FALLOS (y los aciertos)

  3. anabel says:

    acto de fe, de la güeena!

  4. Óscar says:

    Hola Carlos,
    ¡Cómo me gusta esa palabra!, PERSEVERAR, ¿será que soy un cabezón?. La verdad es que las sensaciones son las que describes, uno por momentos se harta y tiene la tentación de dejarlo; pero luego piensa, echando la vista atrás, que son más las veces que ha merecido la pena (y mucho) que las que no. La pena que me da es que yo no tenía edad para ir a aquellas fiestas, pero más pena me daría no ir a las que vengan, que vendrán.
    Trabajo, mucho trabajo es lo que tenemos ahora mismo para un pobre o nulo rendimiento, pero prefiero pensar que sin ese trabajo, lo más probable es que acabase descapitalizado, y así aparte de las ganas me quedaría sin los cuartos.
    Paciencia , tendremos que tener paciencia, y estar atentos a que empiece la fiesta para ser los primeros en entrar.
    Suerte a todos, perseverancia y ante todo mucha calma
    Óscar

  5. anabel says:

    ..y a luego, con que te secas, ¿eh?, que muchas veces no se tiene aprecio a la metáfora entes de serla.

  6. Joaquín says:

    Bien por tus palabras de ánimo, Carlos. Conviene refrescar la filosofía del seguimiento de tendencias. Sobre todo cuando el mercado poco tendencial provoca impaciencia y da la sensación de que el sistema no funciona.
    Y eso que conocidos autores de libros de trading insisten en ello:
    Van Tharp: “La ventaja del seguimiento de tendencias es simple. Nunca quedaremos fuera de un movimiento importante del mercado. Aun así (…) el seguidor de tendencias debe estar dispuesto a operar en condiciones desfavorables si no quiere perderse la gran tendencia cuando ésta aparezca.”
    Óscar Cagigas: “…si usted sigue tendencias debe tener mucha moral…es un negocio ingrato…sólo unas pocas operaciones dan resultados excelentes que compensan a todas las demás. El resto son mediocres o incluso peor.”

    El seguimiento de tendencias será un buen sistema si somos pacientes y dejamos que las leyes de los grandes números hagan su trabajo, y para eso hace falta tiempo.

    Por cierto, vaya salto conceptual. En el mismo párrafo pasas del trading tendencial a la moral católica. Hombre, no estaría de acuerdo con que la moral católica condena el trading tendencial, pero bueno, esto se sale del tema.

    Sí estoy de acuerdo, porque me ha pasado, con el efecto “gafe”: eso de un sistema que desde fuera lo ves funcionar bien, rentable, y entonces vas tú, entras y ¡zas! pillas la mala racha correspondiente estadísticamente. A ver si es que Dios me está castigando…

  7. Carlos Doblado says:

    Hombre Joaquín, pues igual sí he desvariado un poco… 😉

    Un fuerte abrazo a todos y tranquilidad que estamos aquí para durar, no para brillar.

  8. Eimle says:

    ..Pues yo si entiendo lo de la “Moral Católica”..
    …por que, yo que lo soy, me he quedado con un sabor agridulce
    después de entrar y salir en dos minutos con ganancias que
    son cuatro o cinco veces el salario mínimo interprofesional.

    Monton de gente implora un curro que le de para sobrevivir
    …así que doy gracias por lo privilegiado que soy y…
    a seguir en esto para alimentar a una Familia Numerosa

    un cordial saludo a todos

  9. Joaquín says:

    Eimle, por si hubiera alguna duda, aclaro que en ningún momento he querido mofarme de la moral católica. Yo estudié en un colegio de una orden religiosa y me considero afortunado por ello. Te inculca unos principios morales que te acompañan toda la vida.

    El tema es complejo. Lo que quería decir es que lo censurable no es la cantidad de ganancias, sino que éstas se hayan obtenido de forma ilícita o dañando a alguien. Si sólo dependiera de la cantidad, lo que hace un empresario (ganar mucho) sería reprobable.
    Pero este empresario da sustento a personas menos afortunadas que él, beneficia a esas personas y a la sociedad en general.
    Todo depende de la voluntad con que se hacen las cosas (buena o mala) y si se es generoso con lo que se gana, sea mucho o poco.

    Bueno, fin del sermón.
    Saludos.

    • Eimle says:

      …Amén Joaquín, no hay ningun duda, nunca la hubo ;)))

      …no veo tan complejo el tema, de hecho tu tampoco…
      el par “bien-mal” es el que manda… y estoy 100% de acuerdo
      con tu post…

      un cordial saludo

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