Un seguro contra incendios no evita los robos

Por Carlos Doblado, director de análisis de Bolságora

No están marchando bien las cosas para los intereses de Bolságora en 2011 y es bueno saberlo y reconocerlo. Haber cerrado posiciones no fue el problema; que ha consistido sobre todo en una recuperación más rápida y violenta de lo que hubiéramos esperado. Lo que ha impedido que surja la oportunidad de la que les hablaba en un reciente blog, y nos ha obligado a elevar la exposición tras un buen tramo y eso nos obliga a sufrir en su particular ajuste proporcional.

Con todo, hay que saber que nuestra metodología considera esto normal y que no es la primera vez que nos sucede.

Quiero llamar su atención sobre lo que aconteció en 2005 y 2006, con subidas muy discretas para nosotros en un modelo de renta variable internacional, en torno al 10 por ciento anual, frente a un mercado que lo hizo francamente mejor en el mismo período. Toreamos mucho mejor el tema en cartera española, aunque devolvimos algo de ello en 2007 con una rentabilidad por debajo del 4 por ciento pese a un 10 a nivel global; historia que se repitió en 2010 con pérdidas en torno al 4% en el caso español y una rentabilidad positiva cercana al 10 por ciento a nivel global. Este año tenemos en pérdidas a nuestra cartera internacional, y la española lo hace peor que el IBEX 35.

Aunque no pueda apreciarse en unos gráficos como los que adjuntamos por ser de corte plurianual, pérdidas más graves que las que soportamos en este momento las hemos tenido otras veces en el pasado. Sin ir más lejos en 2010, donde nuestra cartera internacional llegó a estar presentar una rentabilidad negativa superior al 5 por ciento. De hecho, nuestras rachas de pérdidas se han acercado en diferentes momentos al 10 por ciento durante estos años, pues hay que sumar las ganancias que han podido estar obteniéndose previamente y se han evaporado antes de que lleguen los números rojos.

Comprender lo que significa especular en un sistema

Todo esto debería formar parte de la normalidad en la cabeza de los inversores cuando apuestan por un sistema de especulación. Nadie puede hacerlo siempre mejor que su referencia. Nos dirá que nosotros, con un sistema consistente desde 2002 que ha sobrellevado más que dignamente dos graves crisis (y tres mercados bajistas en el caso español), quizá lo vemos con la perspectiva del tiempo. Pero es que otra no vale cuando de mercados se trata. Aquí la suerte, buena o mala, explica rentabilidades de corto plazo casi siempre. En ese entorno temporal la aleatoriedad es brutal. Si está en Ecotrader o es cliente de la EAFI de Bolságora, debería tener claro que está aquí para desarrollar un trabajo a 5-10 años. De otro modo, juega a la lotería con el sistema.

Hay gente que parece que llega a pensar que no se puede perder con productos desarrollados por Bolságora. Y eso es completamente falso. Es abolutamente falso incluso cuando has destrozado a tu referencia como es el caso de nuestra cartera española. Pero no tenemos pérdidas porque nos olvidemos de controlar el riesgo de vez en cuando, sino porque el control de riesgos no supone poder evitar las pérdidas; que son desagradables pero forman parte de la vida del sistema. Sin riesgos (pérdidas potenciales) no existen beneficios potenciales.

El sistema Bolságora está pensado para protegerle de incendios, como lo sucedido en 2002 y 2008, pero no puede evitar el tener malas rachas porque está obligado a salir a torear. Y por mucho que esmero que pueda ponerse en el control de riesgos, en ocasiones hay que salir para fallar. Y eso supone una pérdida casi inevitablemente. Pérdida que puede ser significativa, especialmente en mercados de alto rango, pero que nunca impide que la partida continúe si no se acude al apalancamiento.

Bolságora es un sistema para evitar la descapitalización, para que no se le prenda fuego en la casa, pero con su asesoramiento se sufrirán deterioros de cartera periódicamente porque cuando te equivocas te la levantan. Podemos protegerle de muchas cosas, pero no de las malas rachas. Podemos tener claro que a nuestra manera un 2008 no va a matarnos, pero nunca podremos asegurar que no vayan a hacerle cierto daño durante cierto tiempo. Es como cuando asegura su casa contra un incendio o tsunami; pues eso no se evitará la pérdida en caso de robo. Y lamentablemente, con el dinero no existe un seguro completo más allá del depósito bancario. De hecho ni así, pues la inflación existe.

PD: los gráficos contemplan los dividendos conseguidos por las inversiones de Bolságora y también por las de los índices, circunstancia esta última de lo que por curiosa costumbre no suele acordarse el sector. Se incluye también el coste medio histórico de las transacciones hechas por las SICAV que asesora Bolságora.

This entry was posted in General, Nuestra cartera. Bookmark the permalink.

5.126 Responses to Un seguro contra incendios no evita los robos

  1. Óscar Alonso says:

    Hola Carlos;
    Yo que soy vigués, no he podido dejar de acordarme de un disco de Siniestro Total que me vale para estos momentos… ANTE TODO, MUCHA CALMA. Soy bastante novato en estas lides, pero tengo una buena habilidad (al menos eso creo) para calar a la gente. No es momento de sucumbir, sino de perseverar. El hecho de que nos hayan cogido con el paso cambiado, no significa que vayamos a ir dando tropiezos todo el camino, y más cuando el camino es tan largo.
    Estas semanas parece que las tendencias han ido un poco por donde han querido, pero si miramos el balance global tampoco ha sido malo, habéis tenido grandes aciertos y como todo aquel que se dedique a lo vuestro, hay otras cosas que no estuvieron tan acertadas. Supongo que si tuvieras una bola de cristal ya te habrías retirado hace tiempo.
    Repito, el camino es largo, muy largo; y seguirá ofreciendo oportunidades, unas las cogeremos y otras no. Que nadie se llame a engaño, nadie está en esto obligado, todos sabemos a lo que jugamos, y si no lo sabe alguien… puede valer para que se de por enterado.
    Un afectuoso saludo

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  2. Felipe says:

    Carlos, no creo que los que estamos en esto (yo llevo con vosotros 1 año, y creo que por temas aleatorios seguramente he cogido el peor periodo posible; entré en la caída del 2010) pensemos que falla el sistema.

    Buscamos un método que pare las pérdidas en las malas rachas, y en las buenas gane dinero. Pero, yo al menos, no quiero ganar mucho cuando el mercado sube (obviamente quiero ganar), eso es muy fácil. Lo que quiero es no perder de forma significativamente en las malas rachas.

    Y creo que lo que nos está pasando estos días, se debe precisamente a eso. Visteis indicios de fuertes recortes hace algunas semanas, y recortasteis exposición, luego la reentrada es compleja.

    Vale. En mi caso es lo que busco, y hay que pagarlo.

    !Animo!

    Un saludo

  3. Carlos Doblado says:

    Apreciado vigués, la autoexigecia es grande en Bolságora, somos un proyecto de 10 años pero que no ha perdido ni un gramo de ambición. Y cada error nos sigue doliendo como el primer día aunque empezáramos con menos de 50 clientes y hoy elEconomista tenga casi 2000 suscriptores en Ecotrader. Nos duele como el primer día. Pero tiene toda la razón y por ello le damos vueltas. Es un camino, y largo. Pero creeme que mucha gente no consigue asimilarlo a tiempo y se desengaña abanconándolo. Estos posts tienen como objetivo animar a esa gente a perseverar.

    Un abrazo amigo.

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  4. Carlos Doblado says:

    Apreciado Felipe, es estupendo tener clientes como vosotros. Con esas reflexiones nos animais a seguir pensando sobre todo en que tenemos un cliente al que se lo debemos todo porque selo merece todo.

    Un saludo afectuoso, y no temas que tenemos el ánimo tan a tope como siempre.

  5. Óscar Alonso says:

    Aquí estamos, pa´lo que haga falta.

  6. Eimle says:

    …No esperaba menos de Vosotros Carlos …mas de dos años con BSG y ahora en ECO…

    …y los que nos quedan “juntos” …tengo llaves de todos los tipos y tamaños, cuando llegué
    en la mano tenía una maza.

    …Solo el “aprehendizaje” del dominio de los sentimientos vale como mínimo cada uno de
    los €uritos que ¿cuesta? el asesoramiento de todo el Equipo.

    …Ya no cuento los Cursos que he recibido de eE y BSG.

    …bueno, peloteo el justo …Gracias a Todos

    …un abrazo y que el buen Futbol nos relaje de los mercados.

    Eimle

  7. Carlos Doblado says:

    Gracias a ti amigo, nos queda mucho juntos… ¡Pero que ganen los míos por favor! 🙂

  8. Georgi says:

    Hola Carlos,
    No contrato ningun seguro contra incendios , pero porque vivo de alquiler jaja, pero lo que si hago desde el mes de enero es contratar un asesoramiento vuestro y me dedico a aprender y cuando mas aprendo mas me custa vuestra folosofia, vale que ahora mismo no es el mejor momento, pero lo que se, es que si no estuviera con vosotros estaria al borde del precipicio. Espero que sigais mucho tiempo en esto porque confio en vosotros y .. ya vendran mejores momentos, en 4 meses no creo que nadie deberia de hacer conclusiones y mas en borsa , por eso digo …. ya hablaremos dentro de 3 o 5 anitos.

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    No te preocupes Georgi, llevamos 9 años y estamos a gusto. No vamos a ir a ninguna parte mientras haya gente que valora nuestra filosofía. Operar a corto-medio plazo para sobrevivir y poder ganar más que el mercado a medio-largo plazo.

    Estamos encantados de que os vayais animando a hacer comentarios en el blog…

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