Previsión taquilla Estados Unidos

17 abril 2008

This weekend has the opportunity to rise the total weekend B.O. to 90-95M$ thanks of the release of two great movies like The Forbidden Kingdom (LionsGate) and Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal). Both films have the chance to be the number one and surpass the 20M$ first frame gross.

Jet Li and Jackie Chan’s adventure The Forbidden Kingdom is a 70M$ blockbuster which will be released in more than 3’100 sites across the US. The intention of Lionsgate is to be the main family film on this weekend and add art marital/Chan/Li fans in the theaters as well.

The film is directed by Rob Minkoff, a Hollywood family movies handmaker who has directed films as The Haunted Mansion and Stuart Little 1 & 2.

The main opportunity of the film is the less competition of other family adventure films, because Nim’s Island and Horton are too far to be direct competition during this weekend, and the other released movies don’t have the same target (both are R).

The Forbidden Kingdom has the chance to gross among 20-22M$ during its first frame.

The second big release of this weekend is Universal’s adult comedy Forgetting Sarah Marshall by the creators of Knocked Up and 40-years-old Virgin. The movie, as the previous two films, will be released by Universal in the same number of sites, 2’700 and with an R.

Universal aims to attract the same target at Knocked and Virgin, and take some of the adult people who went to see Superbad. The movie has been well-reviewed and has a well-done poster which suggests the same attraction of Juno. The poster designers has used the same letters and design of the general art and used similar colors with the intention to catch young people among 21 to 35-years-old.

With these elements on its side, Forgetting could gross 19M$ during these three weekend days and also has the chance to surpass the 20M$ if the audiences find the movie more attractive than I though.

The third big release is Al Pacino’s action film 88 Minutes (Sony) which is bowed in plus than 2’000 locations and the film will not be very attractive to anybody.

The movie has been released in a lot of other countries and US is one of the last chance to obtain a success. 88 Minutes is performed by Al Pacino who is a police detective who has only 88 minutes to find up a mysterious murder or something like that.

Sony will bow the film in no more than 2’000 sites and that’s a prove that the movie hasn’t very confidence from its distributor. Sony aims to gross in the line of past weekend release Street Kings, but I think that 88 will be far from 12M$ gross and only will gross among 7’5-8M$.

The film has cost only 30M$ and Sony will obtain good sales in DVD and TV rights, enough to recover the main inversion.

About the past weekend releases, both film will drop a lot from their first frame. Prom Night could fall a 60% as other horror films and especially with the fantastic first gross obtained past week. Despite this fall, the movie will gross more than 32M$ and with the intention to cross the 45M$ mark which any other 2008 horror film has surpass.

Street Kings could drop a 45% by the direct competition of 88 minutes and the attraction of Forbidden Kingdom and Forgetting Sarah Marshall. Keanu Reeves action movie could cross the 20M$ during this weekend and that’s exactly what it cost. Maybe the film will end with a final cume of 35M$.

Nim’s Island and 21 will be the only two films which could drop less than 40%. Both films are being well accepted by general audiences and that will go on during this weekend.

18^th – 20^th April Prediction:

Pau Brunet