Previsión taquilla Estados Unidos

11 enero 2008

This weekend the box office will receive four major releases and three movies will expand their locations considerably. Leading in the poll of widest releases we found Warner’s comedy The Bucket List costarred by Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman which can be considered also a expansions because the movie was bow in Christmas at 16 sites and now the film will be projected in more than 2,900 sites.

The major studio aims to attract adult audiences with this nostalgic comedy about two old men who want to life hard experiences. Directed by Rob Reiner, the film has obtained mixed reviews and that could affect negatively, because usually adult audiences are very influential by critics. Moreover, the current box office has other adult films as Juno or Atonement which have obtained excellent results during the first weeks, good reviews and Golden Globes nominations.

The presence of the prestigious awards and the cancellation of the ceremony could influent the film, but I don’t know how.

Although that, the presence of two awarded legends as Nicholson and Freeman could influence as well. The Bucket list could end the weekend with $16M. Warner has spent $45M in produce this film. The company aims that the movie keeps audiences during next weeks as other soft comedies as Dan in real life did last year.

About the other expansions (are more interesting than the weekend releases) Juno has a lot of expectations to climb to the box office top during this three days. Fox independent comedy has been number one during Thursday and Wednesday and this weekend will add 500 sites to 2,447.

Juno has been acclaimed by critics and audiences and the mouth to mouth effect has happened. The studio aims that this effect could keep the film in the number one position with more than $16M and grossing $73M to date.

Juno has a lot of possibilities to obtain Oscar nominations in two weeks, and that could be magic for the final box office which could surpass $100M in domestically.

Atonement is the other big option to urban adult audiences. The Britannic drama adds 367 locations to 950 and has serious options to obtain a Golden Globe Award during this Sunday. The past weekend, the film climbed to number 10 position with more than $4M and this weekend could surpass the $5M. Costarred by Keira Knightly the film will gross more than $25M on Monday and will keep adding more millions.

Atonement has been a success in United Kingdom, grossing more than $30M, and the Oscar nominations could be decisive to release in other countries and gross close to $60M. The final production cost was $35M.

The third important expansion is the Spanish scary movie The Orphange, which adds 638 sites to 707 locations. Guillermo del Toro’s success in Spain grossed more than $1M in only 69 sites during two weeks, obtaining a average of $7,000. Picturehouse expects to surpass $3’5M and climb among the 15 first positions.

That would mean that the movie will obtain more than $5,000 a non-impressive result by a horror film but excellent for a foreign movie.

Picturehouse is making an aggressive campaign with lots of TV spots and presence in all Medias (papers, magazines, radio and Internet) to repeat last year success Pan’s Labyrinth.

About the ‘real’ releases, First Sunday bows in more than 2,200 sites and has the chance to attract African American moviegoers. Although this attraction, the film couldn’t surpass $10M gross during its first weekend.

In the name of the king releases in 1,600 sites with very bad reviews and an awful trailer that will affect negatively the film. The production company will attract teen audiences but the energy of other titles as I am legend won’t give any opportunity to gross more than $5-6M during this days.

The film has a production cost of $60M.

The pirates who don’t do anything is the new 3-D animation film of the year, but doesn’t have many chances to obtain good number at its first frame. The animation movie has a lot of competition with titles as Alvin and the chipmuncks or the adventure titles National Treasuere and The water horse.

With lucky, Pirates will surpass a non-impressive $5M gross.

Among the other films in the top10, Charlie Wilson’s War, P.S. I love you and Sweeney Todd have real probabilities to keep audiences filling the theaters. Each of them will down only a 30%. In the case of Wilson and Sweeney, the films are waiting for some Golden Globe Awards and the Oscar nominations.

Pau Brunet