Previsión taquilla Estados Unidos

01 febrero 2008

The Super Bowl weekend is a platform to release horror movies as Final Destination 2 (2003), Boogeyman (2005), When strangers call (2006) and The Messengers (2007) all with good results. This year the box office will recive another horror movie, Jessica Alba’s Asiatic remake The Eye, released by Lionsgate. But this year another “experience” will lead the box office: Disney’s 3D Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of two worlds concert tour.

Hannah Montana 3D movie bows in just 684 sites and the film will be only one week in box office. Moreover, the ticket price will be more expenisve than usual multiplex tickets: 15$.

Disney has promote the filme as an experience to all the (teen female) young singer star’s fans among U.S. Another elemento to predict that this film will top the B.O. is the pre-sales tickets webs, because these ticket salers said that they are sold a 91% of the ticket, as the Hannah Montana’s concert tour did last summer.

Dispite the presence of the SuperBowl, Disney is confident that this sport event should not be much of a distraction to young females, just because they are the typically quadrant less interested in the big game.

All these elements make me think that Hannah 3-D movie could surpass the Borat record gross in less than 1,000 sites. The last year comic film grossed more than $30M in just 800 sites, Hannah could surpass that because the ticket price will be the double than Borat normal ticket price, and that could provoque a final gross of $35-40M.

Lionsgate’s new horror pic The Eye won’t lead the box office as they predicted before know the Disney’s release. But, the PG-13 scary movie has the chance to attract young audiences not interested in the SuperBowl, as 16-20 years-old girls and their partners or friends.

As the horror films did in past years, The Eye should be a good alternative to teenage audiences and Hannah’s concert is not a direct competition because the singer’s fans are more young (less than 15). Lionsgate bows the film in 2,200 locations and could gross $11’5M during its first frame.

The third large weekend release is Over her dead body, a romantic comedy which looks as a stupid ’80 teen comedy style. The film is starred by Deseperate Housewife famous co-star Eva Lorgia, but her presence won’t be enough to attract audiences. New Line is going to add another flop at its particular black list of disappointments. But the question here is: what is going a movie like this in the B.O? Why New Line didn’t bow it in DVD directly? Maybe, New Line thought that this comedy would cover the economical spot made by epic magic film The Golden Compass flop.

To chance the subject, the Super Bowl will be a negative effect to last weekend releases Rambo and Meet the Spartants. Both films have been made to male audiences, the main quadrant interested and hooked with the sport event. For this reason, Rambo and Spartans will drop a 55% more or less, both grossing $8M each one.

Academy nominees’ filmes, Atonement, Juno, No Country, There will be blood and Michael Clayton will keep positions and numbers falling a 30-35% or less and they will still obtaining good results, especially for their budget (any nominee film has a budget over $30M).

My 1^st – 3^rd February prediction is:

Pau Brunet