Previsión taquilla Estados Unidos

06 marzo 2008

This weekend box office is going to start the spring season with one of its great blockbuster: Roland Emmerich’s 10.000bC. Far to this major wide release are Disney’s teen comedy College Road Trip and Brit action thriller The Bank Job, both of them with the intention to be in second position after the prehistoric epic movie.

Warner bows this weekend 10.000 bC an epic and spectacular action movie set in prehistoric age which is going to be in more than 3,300 sites across the U.S. The intention of major company is climb the B.O. and surpass the $45M or plus. The film has been promoted aggressively during this past two weeks and Warner aims for catch the attention of teen, young and adult male audiences who are looking for an action and stunning film.

Roland Emmerich’s brand in the top of posters and trailers are one of the main weapon which are using Warner to take the attention. Emmerich has some of the most lucrative films of last years as Independence Day, Stargate and The Day after tommorrow, all of them with more than $300M in worldwide gross.

Warner is quite confident with the product and is sure than they will return the $75M final budget back in few weeks. Moreover, the major is used to expend a lot of money in promotion, in this case more than $50M in all the world.

Warner is releasing the film in other important market as Germany, Spain, France, and many other and that’s mean the TV spot, posters, and trailers are being showed across the world, with the intention to end the weekend with more than $90M in worldwide.

College Road Trip is the new Martin Lawrence’s crazy comedy. While Lawrence Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins is still in theaters, Disney bows this film in more than 2,500 sites hoping to catch young and teen afroamercians who doesn’t see the prehistoric adventure 10,000 bC.

Disney has a big handicap in its movie: Martin Lawrence. He is the star but, his movie is too much resent in theaters and maybe his audience is tied to see his face. Despite of this, the film could gross among $10-12M, enough for a cheap movie like this.

The Bank Job is a British action film about a rob in a big bank in London. The film is released by Lionsgate in 1,300 sites hoping to catch an adult and male audience and adult female as well. The film has in its side the presence of action star Jason Statham but moreover Bank has an excellent trailer which shows an style and humor (and Statham looks like a young Bruce Willis). The critic’s comments has been excellent (more than an 80% in Rottentomatoes barometer).

The Bank Job aims to gross more than $8M during its first frame in U.S box office, what’s mean more than $6,000 per site. The final budget of this film is $20M.

Past week number one Semi-Pro will fall more than a 50% after its poor first frame. Will Farrell’s sport comedy hasn’t been well accepted by its audiences maybe because the film has been rated R and that has provoked that teen moviegoers absence.

New Line last flop could end with less than $40M which means the less grosses stupid comedy by Will Farrell.

Penelope and The other Boleyn girl has the opportunity to survive this weekend thanks of female audiences. Both films has been made to women of all ages and that could be very important to keep audiences during its second frame. Despite this, both films could fall among a 40%.

The Spiderwick Chronicles will be the only one released film on past weeks to keep good revenues during its fourth frame. Family fantasy film could down a 30% thanks of hasn’t any other competition.

Paramount will surpass the $62M, but the final film budget is $90M.

Academy Awards winners Juno and No country for old men will keep good results after several weeks in theaters. On the other hand, There will be blood will fall more than a 40% because Paramount will remove a lot of copies. Despite this fall, Paul Thomas Anderson’s films has grossed more than $40M, being his most successful film.

Final box office numbers will rise this weekend thanks the release of 10,000 bC and the continuity of films as Fool’s Gold, Vantage Point, Spiderwick, Semi-Pro and the other two weekend releases The Bank Job and College Road Trip.

This second march weekend gross could surpass easily the $120M becoming a 60% more lucrative than past weekend.

My forecast for this weekend is:

Pau Brunet