Previsión taquilla Estados Unidos

14 diciembre 2007

Weekend before Christmas is an important period for big movies. Several films as King Kong, Lemony Snicket and The Pursuit of happiness have obtained great grosses over $50M. This year could be different because the major part of released movies has grossed less that the studios expect (The Golden Compass, Hitman, Fred Claus, Beowulf).

I am Legend is the film with more possibilities to cross the $50M bar. Warner bows this film in more than 3.500 sites expecting that Will Smith popularity attracts young and male audiences. The studio aims to gross $55M waiting for Christmas weekends when the movie could gross more millions as Night at the museum did last year.

Last Will Smith film The pursuit of Happiness gross $150M and Smith is very popular and well considered among general audiences, especially, among young people. Warner has done a strong promotion of the movie, with several TV spots and posters, and has announced the movie in all the cinema web pages in US. I don’t know the final budget of I am Legend but I am sure that the movie has cost more than $120M.

I am Legend release will affect to other popular movies as The Golden Compass which could fall 50% in its second frame. New Line’s epic movie hasn’t obtained great numbers during its first week (only $31M) and the studios doesn’t aim to improve this gross. The Golden Compass will fall to third position with $13M far away from its cost of $180M.

Family audiences will find other option to its children: Alvin and the Chipmuncks, adapted from the popular TV show. Fox half animated movie opens in 3,475 venues trying to attract children attention to gross about $17M its first weekend. The studio waits to keep well results during the Christmas season because the movie cost is $70M.

Fox promotion campaign hasn’t been great, only the TV spots could attract the children attention, they don’t promote the film among webs for instance. The studio has forgot the adult audiences who used to see the show when they were young, and it’s possible that Alvin will not obtain the same result as other TV cartoon adaptations like Scooby Doo or Garfield.

A perfect Holiday wants to repeat the same success as This Christmas did a few weeks ago, but Wednesday first grosses don’t reflect the same feeling. A perfect holiday is another afro-american film made to this audience but too much similar of previous films released in few weeks (Why I get married). In more than 1,307 sites the film not expect to gross more than $2’6M.

Enchanted and August Rush will keep good results in its fourth frame dropping less than a 35%. Disney fantasy is trying to mantain audiences during Christmas weekends to cross the $120M before Eve’s year. August producers will be happy whether the movie gross is plus than $35M.

Yesterday Golden Globes nominations have been announced and the major nominated film was Atonement with seven nods. Focus war period drama was released past weekend in less than 40 sites, obtaining more than $25,000 per site. This weekend the movie adds 85 locations trying to attract adult audiences in major cities. Focus is used to release movie in this way (Last, Caution for instance) and, in general, has a good taste to please the audience. If Atonement adds more awards and nominations, the film could cross $40M as similar period dramas well reviewed.

With four in nominations is Miramax drama thriller No country for old men. The film shows in more than 1,300 sites and is expecting to drop less than 15% during this weekend. Coen’s film is the most successful film of the season and is possible than during the first two months the movie can add more millions.

Pau Brunet