Previsión taquilla Estados Unidos

02 noviembre 2007

Next weekend, 3-D animation film Bee Movie and Ridley Scott last epic tale American Gangster will open Hollywood winter season. Both movies open in 3,000-3,500 sites with an enormous (and expensive) promotion campaign which has covered the country. After the low income of autumn, studios expect to overcome the box office results and obtain new record-breaks. In a few weeks, majors will have bowed blockbusters as The Golden Compass, Fred Claus, Enchanted and Beowulf with high expectations.

Dreamworks’ Bee Movie will release in 3,500 locations with the objective to attract family audiences and obtain among $40-45M. Jerry Seinfeld is Barry, a worker-bee who one day discovers life outside the colony. Co-starring Renée Zellweger, Kathy Bates and Ray Liotta, Bee Movie will have to keep a good level of grosses during the following weeks to have some benefit, since the movie has a budget of $150M plus $80M in P&A. If Bee Movie starts with $40M, it will obtain a $160M final gross.

Jerry Katzenberg’s animation studio hopes the funny plot and the famous voices will keep children in the theatres, but next week Fred Claus and Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium can damage the numbers of the bee. We will see.

Some box office analysts have said that American audiences aren’t in the mood for serious stories and maybe that explains the flop of many “adult” movies. This weekend Universal will bow American Gangster in 3,150 sites. The thriller-drama film has been acclaimed by critics and has two Academy award names (Denzel Washington and Russel Crown) in its topline. Moreover Ridley Scott is a big name that will attract adult audience among 30 to 60 years-old. Universal expects to obtain $35M during this first frame.

Good reviews and award options give Universal’s Amercian Gangster the chance to surpass the $120M in domestic, as The Departed did last year. The film has a budget of $100M.

New Line bows Martian Child, a new drama with surrealistic plot about a 7 years-old boy who believes that he is from Mars. Co-starring John Cusack and Joan Cusack, the film releases in about 2,020 sites with the chance to obtain about $8’5M, as Dan in real life did last week.

Despite the movie didn’t obtain quite good reviews (it only reached 33% in Rottentomatoes barometer), the studio hopes the plot and the funny trailer will attract some adult audiences not interested in blockbusters. The film has a budget of $27M.

About last week releases, it’s quite possible that Saw IV initial gross will fall 60% to $12M and cume $53M, the year’s best horror gross by far. Likewise, 30 days of night will drop close to 50% just after the Halloween days and longing for cume $40M final gross.

The strong presence of new adult films (Amercian Gangster and Martian Child) will affect Dan in real life, Michael Clayton and Gone baby gone, whose grosses can descend close to a 40%.

Sidney Lumet last movie Before the devil knows you’re dead and the black comedy Wristcutters, will expand the number of locations this weekend. Both “little movies” have obtained quite good reviews and the prestige of the first and the original plot of the second could give them a significant increment of their grosses.

The box Office is preparing for the arrival of the award season which means the studios will release their best pics with the intention to obtain step by step a final Oscar nomination. We will see which of the adult movies released this season will make it.

Pau Brunet